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2012-11-07 The Structure of the Presidency.docx

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Political Science
Political Science 2244E
P Ferguson

The Structure of the Presidency November 7, 2012 The Presidency Thoughts on election -youth -did not count mail ballots and -youth (18-29) make up 19% of voting population (last election: 18%); 65+ seniors make up 17% -cannot blame youth not involved -people who became first time voter and voted twice for same party = most likely to vote for that party for the rest of their lives -56-44% seniors go for Romney -~70-30% youth vote go to Obama -Hispanics -69%-27% for Obama -dispersed population -long-term problem for Republican Party; they kept on bashing Hispanics and Mexicans -Obama: ran on healthcare reform in 2008 -but this election was all about economy -Whites -voted heavily for Republicans -72% white population in US (last election in 2008: 74%) -Obama got 40% of white vote; 90%+ AfricanAmerican vote; Hispanics andAsians (minorities) voted for Obama -Auto Bailout -made a big difference in Michigan and Ohio -Rape andAbortion -cost Republicans 2 seats in Senate -e.g. Sandra Fluke, Rush Limbaugh, and contraception -Republicans cannot be too extreme -Choice v. Referendum -Democrats made this election as choice issue: do you want Romney or Obama? -47% -summer blitz: -got a lot of money during the summer -spent money on ads to portray Romney as 1% and get people to vote -Conventions -Republicans did not have a good convention -they needed to humanize Romney and they failed to do it -Clint Eastwood and the empty chair speech -Democrats got 3-5% bounce from election; Republicans got 0 bounce -Debates -Libya -didn’t really matter in the election -Romney’s knee-jerk reaction: he released the press release about the video -made a mistake -Obama accused Romney of politicizing the issue of diplomats -Hurricane Sandy -didn’t really make a huge impact -there was already movement towards Obama before Sandy -Romney and Obama couldn’t campaign; had to suspend for a few days -Hurricane Sandy and Libya didn’t really hurt Obama; it could be good because it made Obama look presidential -Core/Flip Flop vs. Rich and Right wing -Obama: Romnesia -saying he always flip-flopped -if you flip-flop, you can’t be right-wing at the same time -Economy/Jobs -research: whatever the condition the economy/job employment rate was 6 months ago dictate the election -this theory should be dead -George H.W. Bush: numbers out 6 months were good but lost to Clinton -Carville: it’s the economy, stupid -if it’s about debates and economy/jobs, then campaigns don’t need to campaign (not true – c
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