Psychology 2135A/B Lecture Notes - Lecture 12: Risk Aversion, Affective Forecasting, Junkers D.I

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Diverse forms of thinking: draw conclusions from evidence we encounter, consider implications of our various beliefs, make decisions (trivial and consequential) Instead you rely on this usually works (cid:271)e(cid:272)ause . Events that are frequent in the world are likely to be more available in memory. Availability in memory: how easily can you think of causes. Probability of event being in a category or having certain properties. Resemblance between that event and other events that are in the category. Many categories are homogeneous enough so that the category members do resemble one another: the availability heuristic. But this strategy can lead to error (cid:271)e(cid:272)ause . Many factors other than frequency in the world can influence availability from memory. Illusions of covariation: people detect covariation when there is none (ex: astrology + personality, stereotypes, confidence + correctness, when people make judgements of covariation, they only consider a subset of evidence which is skewed by their prior expectations.

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