Psychology 2135A/B Lecture Notes - Lecture 22: Belief Bias, List Of Fallacies, Confirmation Bias
20 Jan 2019
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Reasoning: deductive, structure determines validity, semantic content can interfere, belief bias. Probability: study of likelihood and uncertainty, normative theory, describes what we should do, standard by which we can measure behaviour. In contrast, descriptive theory will describe how people actually behave: most of us don"t behave in accordance with probability, we make errors such as ignoring things like the base rates. 5 chance of heads, over 1000 tosses about 500 will be heads. If we get 10 heads in a row, there is equal likelihood to get a head or a tail next: rolling a 6 on a regular die, 1 desired outcome, 6 possible outcomes (1/6) Multiple outcomes: what is the probability of getting two heads in a row, the and rule , multiply the probabilities, each event is independent, the joint probability of events decreases with the number of events.
