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Lecture 16

Sociology 1020 Lecture 16: DEMOGRAPHY

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Department
Sociology
Course Code
Sociology 1020
Professor
Kim Luton

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Sociology 1020 – Demography Note Demographics are all about counting human beings. There are four components to demography (we only look at three: 1. Fertility 2. Mortality 3. Migration 4. Morbidity (don’t look at this one – is about disease and sickness) One: Fertility Fertilityis the incidence of childbearing in a country’s population. Fecundity – the potential for childbearing Crude Birth Rate – “The number of live births per 1000 in mid-year population.” As of 2001, this number was 11.27/1000. • Called the “crude” birth rate because it takes in account for the whole population, including people who don’t have kids (e.g., kids, males, elderly) Differentials: reason for people to have kids or not to. Some are: • Rural vs. urban (rural have more) • Marriage (married people have more) • Nativity (Canadian born or immigrant? Immigrants have more) • Labour force participation rate of females • Education and income (used to be that people with lower education and income had more kids, but the tables are turning – Higher education and people who make over $150,000 a year are having more kids. They’re actually having enough for replacement) o According to money it costs $12,800 a year to raise a child to 18. This doesn’t account for extras, like vacation, camp or college. • Contraception (90% of females are on some sort of birth control) Total Fertility Rate: (TFR) the number of children hat a hypothetical female would have over the course of her reproductive life span. 1.59/woman. Age Specific Fertility Rate – the number of births to women at specific ages divided by all the women of that age (/1000) Age 20-24 25-29 30-34 40-44 1921 165.4 186.0 154.6 46.7 1980 100.1 129.4 69.3 3.1 2011 45.7 95.2 105.9 10.3 Two: Mortality Mortality: the incidence of death in a population Crude Death Rate: number of deaths in a given year for every thousand people in a population (7.0 deaths/1k). In 1867, the number was 21/1000. Infant Mortality Rate: number of deaths among infants under one year for each 1000 live births (4.7 deaths/1k live births). This is the most important index of modernization – the lower it is, the more advanced a country is. In Canada, the number is not as low as it could be because the first nations infant mortality rate is rather high (19/1000 live births) th Life Expectancy: average life span of a country’s population. Canada has the 12 highest life expectancy, with 81 years old. For males the life expectancy is 78.89, and for females its 84. Sanitation is a big factor in life expectancy and declining death rates! Age Specific Death Rates is the number of deaths per thousand population in a particular age grouping. • Up to 19 years: less than 1/1000 Sociology 1020 – Demography Note • 70-74: 20.2/1000 • by 90 years: 195.3/1000 Three: Migration • Canadians = very mobile • People aged 20-24 are more likely to move around due to education and jobs • People who are university educated move the most • There is no mobility difference between men and women • High occupational status = move more Migration: movement of people in and out of a specified territory Immigration: movement into a territory Emigration: movement out of a territory Internal Migration: movement within borders Net-migration rate: net result of immigration and emigration Voluntary Migration: due to push and pull factors Involuntary Migration: forced migration due to war or other social conflict Population Growth Canada’s growth rate is very, very low, around 0.78, while the world’s is 1.96 Sex Ratio: number of males for every 100 females. IT is important because males who cant find partners are more disruptive. Females are more likely to be aborted as fetuses. • In Canada, the sex ratio is 98:100, which isn’t skewed. Population Pyramids of Canada • Age-sex distribution in society is represented by a population pyramid • Men are always on the left, women on the right • Ages usually run up the middle • We can see a bulge – baby boomers • Also see a bulge for echo boomers • Births drop after echo boomers • Starts to look like a pencil in modern societies • Females always outlive the males, which we see at the top • What creates an old population is fertilitiy (#1 factor) • We don’t have it – need immigration Mali Life Expectancy is 53 • Women are having 6 kids on average • Only 20% of women can read Sweden is a developed country • Life expectancy: 81.5 years • 99% can read and write • Birth rate is 1.94 o Still below replacement, but higher than Canada Sociology 1020 – Demography Note History of Population Growth • People favoured large families for productivity • World population passed 1 billion in 1800 • 7,297,436,530 and adding 80 million per year • Grew exponentially (large growth in shorter and shorter periods of time) • Largest populations in the world: China, India, USA Malthusian Theory of Population Growth • 1766-1834 • Warns of impending doom based on population growth predictions o Population is going to exceed doom • Population grows geometrically • Food production is done in an arithmetic progression • Propositions: o Uncontrollable desire to make babies o Food is essential o Inherent conflict between having kids and increasing food Checks • Positive Checks – war, famine, plagues, etc. which increase the death rate • Preventative Checks – abstinence from sex, delaying marriage, birth control, and instituting policies limiting birth • Malthus ignored many things that humans do that control population • Neo-Malthusian approach (new approach): in the past people favored large families because labor was key. This shifted as industrialization started and over time it became clear that children were a liability. We are using up our planet’s resources, and through pollution its renewable resources like water. The more powerful technology has improved our lives, but progress can lead to unexpected unforeseen problems: resources are finite. • Jeffery Sachs – Neo-Malthusian and UN advisor on food scarcity and global security o Says the demand for food is outpacing the growth of supplies based on climate change o Argues that Malthus’s explanations may yet be realized o It is not proved that we can sustain the planet for a long period with out limited resources o To produce 1kg of meat protein requires 9kg of grain – but people want eat protein for energy and to help fight off disease (vicious cycle) o Rising global temperatures and glacier retreat, along with the overuse of water, but there is expanding drought in other poorer parts of the word o Countries like the USA spend ore on wars than agricultural producti
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