ADMS 2511 Lecture Notes - Lecture 26: Sunk Costs, Meta-Analysis, Randomness

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ADMS 2511 Lecture 26 Notes Randomness Error
Introduction
When is escalation of commitment most likely to occur?
A 2012 study indicates that it tends to occur when individuals view themselves as
responsible for the outcome.
The fear of personal failure even biases the way we search for and evaluate information
so that we choose only information that supports our dedication.
We might, for example, weight opinions in favours of reinvestment as more credible
than opinions for divestment.
A 2012 meta-analysis revealed some interesting findings about what causes us to
escalate our commitment after initial failure.
First, it does not appear to matter whether we chose the failing course of action or it
was assigned to uswe feel responsible and escalate commitment in either case.
Second, the sharing of decision authoritysuch as when others review the choice we
madecan lead to higher escalation of commitment because the original decision is
more public (thus, individuals feel a stronger need to justify the original decision by
continuing).
Finally, awareness of sunk costs associated with the decision reduces escalation of
oitet he idiiduals feel resposile it gies the a esape lause.
Most of us like to think we have some control over our world and our destiny.
Our tendency to believe we can predict the outcome of random events is the
randomness error.
Decision making suffers when we try to create meaning in random events, particularly
when we turn imaginary patterns into superstitions.
Personal failure even biases the way we search for and evaluate information so that we
choose only information that supports our dedication.
We might, for example, weight opinions in favours of reinvestment as more credible
than opinions for divestment.
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