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Lecture 2

ENVS 3430 Lecture 2: Assessment Lectures.docx (1-6)

Environmental Studies
Course Code
ENVS 3430
Peter Mulvihill

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October 6, 2014
Envs Assessment – October 7th, 2014
Lecture Notes:
- next test is 90mins – accumulative – same structure etc
- Ontario’s “Ring of Fire” – named after the Johnny Cash song
- Tropical case now in Ontario, been in the media for a whileBeen a problem with
- - opening up a region with cumulative impacts that aren’t predictable and the
certainity isn’t clear – who should assess it
- federal vs pronvincial – substantial investment is required by Ontario
- Mining companies want to value minerals – public vs private
- in area, over 1 million in square miles – 2nd largest province s Ontario – a lot of it
is covered by water – 1/3 supply of freshwater = 13.51 million pple in south
- major is nickel copper silver gold cobalt / golden copper
- settlement and transportation networks followed, and the area continues to
prosper but the Canadian shield continues to attract miners since now diamonds
are found
- Victor mine is an open pit mine and was diamond extractors – ontarios first
diamond mind = second in Canada
- Reached full production in 2008 to 2009 – mine of the year by magazine
- Gold, copper, extremely rare mineral
- Area was so large and has so much value it is named ring of fire – two times the
size of metro Toronto
- From google earth you can see a slight colour change in vegetation – home to
millions of Canadian geese –
- Our analysis shows that within first 10 years of development – ring of fire will
make good contribution to economy for ontario – generate up to 6.2 billion dollars
– sustain nearly 5500 jobs annualy, $2billion in government revenue, divided
between federal provincial municipal
- Tax revenues wuld benefit the federal pronvincial all governemnts – mining
experts estimate the true value of minerals to double or triple later on
- Nishnawabe Aski National poliltical indigenous group – all communities affected
by the ring of the fire
- First – noront resource ltd project eagles nest deposit first mine in 2007 for nickel
copper gold
- Second is cliffs resources – black thor project – largest known deposit of chromite
in north America
- Third is kwg resources inch – big daddy and black horse deposits – pioneer in
mineral exploration in james bay since 1993
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Chapter 8
Prediction – how much baseline knowledge we need to inform prediction? What if
there are gaps? To what extent are impacts unpredictable? What if they are highly
unpredictable? – accurate and precise is useful – not possible to get both accuracy and
- there are always limits to predictions and certainty although sometimes they turn
out to be very accurate and useful
- accuracy is the closeness of a prediction to determine value and precision refers to
the level of preciseness
- you need both, is the prediction true? Both accurate and precise or to what extent
– FIGURE 7.1 shows it as a tradeoff of accuracy vs prediction
What is the rationale for choosing? Models / extrapolation / experimental / analogue /
judgmental / scenarios / etc
- what is the rationale to choosing one or more of these concepts, and it depends on
the particular case – sometimes models make sense whereas sometimes not
- analogue approach is very closely related to the ad hoc approach - it happened in
ontario mining so it will happen in another one
- its on the proponent to be able to justify the type of methods used – strategy and
- self-assessment allows the proponent to have the latitude to not choose the issues
because that is done through scoping outside of them but after it has been
established – they have a lot of leeway to design the assessment and the type of
methods used for approaching predictions – once all put together the envs impact
statement comes under the scrutiny of the government authority or review panel
case and quite unusually with public scrutiny – self assessment doesnt mean the
proponent decides everything but when it comes to putting together the EIS – they
are on their own
Impact examples – table 7.1 and 7.2 and 7.3 and 7.4
- 7.1 is selected by physical impacts – many examples of impacts – air / soil
- the accent is more on the quantitative in measuring things whereas in the social
impacts it is more qualitative and to combine them you need both methods
Prediction – probability analysis / sensitivity / analysis / confirmatory analysis
- too assess the quality of an assessment – subject it and test it with many different
- probability analysis – PAGE 120 definition
- SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS - is it dependent or sensitive to different factors that
can play out – there will be a very negative impact on the bird population if
something else happens but we are not sure if that something else will happen –
this matters because an informed audience can ask questions about future and
worries – scenarios
- Confirmatory analysis –did you even ask the right questions for the right
- Revisit things at different stages like scoping, screening, monitoring – fixing
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