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Lecture 5

HR Planning 3430 week 5.docx

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Department
Human Resources Management
Course
HRM 3430
Professor
All Professors
Semester
Winter

Description
HR Planning Week 5 – Feb 1/12 TEST - CH 1, 2 – 25 m/c (Sanchez and Levine) or 1 or 2 short answer (option – Porter and Barney article) - CH 3 and 4 – 25 m/c (more on the text) – job analysis CHAPTER 3 Environmental Influences on HRM Environmental Scanning - Environmental Scanning - systematic monitoring of the major factors influencing the organization - Goal is to identify trends - i.e. iphone Stages of External Environment - scanning - monitoring - forecasting Environmental Scanning – Sources of Information Strategies and their impact on an organization include: - publications - professional associations - conferences/seminars - professional consultants: Hudson institute Techniques for Scanning HR professionals use several methods to generate predictions about the future: - Trend Analysis - a forecasting method that extrapolates from historical organizational indices - Delphi Technique - a forecasting method in which expert opinions are solicited and summarized Delphi Technique 1. ID experts st 2. Develop 1 questionnaire with numeric answers. distribute to experts. Can be done via email. 3. Statistical analysis of the returned questionnaires. Descriptives etc. 4. Development of the second questionnaire. This questionnaire asks the same questions but differs from the first because it provides the respondent with their original answer as well as showing the distribution of responses from the others in the Delphi panel 5. Distribution of the second questionnaire to the panel of experts. In this questionnaire the respondents are given the opportunity to change their responses or let the original responses stand. Answers given outside the interquartile range must be justified. 6. Development and distribution of subsequent questionnaires using same procedure. New distributions and their current judgments are calculated. Respondents are allowed to change or justify answers. 7. Continue until consensus is reached or close to it. Advantages: could be an email vote 1. No dominant members and no conformity pressure 2. Minimizes influence of member’s vested interests because feedback is controlled. 3. Efficient use of respondent’s time Disadvantages 1. Technique has not been well developed 2. Tends to produced forced consensus and may overlook creative ideas 3. Time consuming (6 months) 4. Attrition: people drop out Techniques for Scanning - Impact Analysis - a forecasting method in which past trends are analyzed by a panel of experts who then predict the probability of future events Youtube Video: Dr. Roch Pararyre – thinkDSI.com - Step 1 in decision problem – deciding what needs to be decided; solving the wrong problem over and over a
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