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HR Planning Chapter 6.docx

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Human Resources Management
HRM 3430
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Chapter 6 The HR Forecasting Process Forecasting Activity Categories There are three forecasting categories: 1. Transactional-based forecasting - focuses on tracking internal change instituted by the organization's managers 2. Event-based forecasting - concerned with changes in the external environment 3. Process-based forecasting - not focused on a specific internal organization event, but on the flow or sequencing of several work activities Benefits of HR Forecasting 1. Reduces HR costs 2. Increases Organizational Flexibility 3. Ensures a close linkage to the Macro Business Forecasting Process 4. Ensures that organizational requirements take precedence over issues of resource constraint and scarcity (HR Supply and HR Demand) Human Resources Supply and Demand • Human Resources Supply - the source of workers to meet demand requirements, obtained either internally (current members of the organization’s workforce) or from external agencies • Human Resources Demand - the organization’s projected requirement for human resources Key Personnel Analyses Conducted by HR Forecasters 1. Specialist/Technical/Professional Personnel 2. Employment Equity-Designated Group Membership 3. Managerial and Executive Personnel 4. Recruits What is a designated Group? • Designated group – identifiable groups deemed to need special attention; in the case of Canadian HR, these are people of Aboriginal descent, women, people with disabilities and members of visible minorities • These groups typically receive the most discrimination within organizations Five Stages of the Forecasting Process 1. Identify organizational goals, objectives, and plans 2. Determine overall demand requirements for personnel 3. Assess in-house skills and other internal supply characteristics 4. Determine the net demand requirements that must be met from external, environmental supply sources 5. Develop HR plans and programs to ensure that the right people are in the right place Organizational Factors Affecting HR Forecasting • Corporate mission, strategic goals • Operational goals, production budgets • HR policies • Organizational structure, restructuring • Worker KSAs, competencies, expectations • HRMS level of development • Organizational culture, climate, job satisfaction, communications • Job analysis: workforce coverage, current data Environmental Factors Affecting HR Forecasting • Economic situation • Labour markets and unions • Government laws and regulations • Industry and product life cycles • Technological changes • Competitor labour usage • Global market for skilled labour • Demographic changes HR Forecasting Time Horizons 1. Current forecast – up to one year 2. Short-run forecast – from one to two years 3. Medium-run forecast – from two to five years 4. Long-run forecast – for five or more years Outcomes of Forecast • Prediction - a single numerical estimate of HR requirements associated with a specific time horizon and set of assumptions • Projection - incorporates several HR estimates based on a variety of assumptions • Envelope - an analogy in which one can easily visualize the corners of an envelope containing the upper and lower limits or “bounds” of the various HR projections extending into the future • Scenario - a proposed sequence of events with its own set of assumptions and associated program details • Contingency plans - implemented when severe, unanticipated changes to organizational or environmental factors completely negate the usefulness of the existing HR forecasting predictions or projections Steps in Determining
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