HREQ 3010 Lecture 6: LECTURE 6

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Unorthodox economist for his interest in things like psychology and politics. John maynard keynes: keynes lived from1883 to 1946, his early work focused o(cid:374) the idea of p(cid:396)o(cid:271)a(cid:271)ilit(cid:455). He (cid:272)lai(cid:373)ed that (cid:858)statisti(cid:272)al p(cid:396)o(cid:271)a(cid:271)ilities(cid:859) (cid:272)ould (cid:271)e (cid:272)o(cid:374)st(cid:396)u(cid:272)ted as a (cid:449)a(cid:455) to u(cid:374)de(cid:396)sta(cid:374)d futu(cid:396)e e(cid:448)e(cid:374)ts. Of pa(cid:396)ti(cid:272)ula(cid:396) focus for him was the future behavior of stock, bond and commodity markets. How do we determine how things will happen in the future: he used this knowledge to make himself a wealthy man. In addition, he made i(cid:374)(cid:448)est(cid:373)e(cid:374)ts fo(cid:396) ki(cid:374)g(cid:859)s college, ca(cid:373)(cid:271)(cid:396)idge: however, keynes came to the conclusion that markets were essentially impossible to ac(cid:272)u(cid:396)atel(cid:455) p(cid:396)edi(cid:272)t. ulti(cid:373)atel(cid:455), the(cid:396)e (cid:449)as a (cid:858)p(cid:396)i(cid:374)(cid:272)iple of u(cid:374)(cid:272)e(cid:396)tai(cid:374)t(cid:455)(cid:859) that go(cid:448)e(cid:396)(cid:374)ed markets. This was the case because human behavior itself was unpredictable. Humans were prone to an irrational form of (cid:271)eha(cid:448)io(cid:396) that (cid:272)aused a (cid:858)he(cid:396)d (cid:373)e(cid:374)talit(cid:455). (cid:859) this (cid:374)otio(cid:374) (cid:449)ould p(cid:396)o(cid:448)e to (cid:271)e (cid:448)e(cid:396)(cid:455) i(cid:373)po(cid:396)ta(cid:374)t to ke(cid:455)(cid:374)es(cid:859) theo(cid:396)(cid:455) of (cid:862)a(cid:374)i(cid:373)al spi(cid:396)its(cid:863) i(cid:374) (cid:272)apitalis(cid:373).

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