EPS 20 Lecture Notes - Lecture 16: Seismic Magnitude Scales, 1906 San Francisco Earthquake
26 Apr 2016
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Document Summary
Use long term processes to estimate probability of earthquakes. Displacement across the san andreas in the 50 years prior to 1906 was 3. 2 m. We have not had a major earthquake near a densely urban area since 1906 san. 1995 kobe earthquake will be very similar to what the bay area might experience in its next large earthquake. There is a 99% chance of a major earthquake in ca in next 30 years (m 6. 7) 63% chance in sf and 67% chance in la. Most overdue for earthquake on southern san andreas fault and hayward-rodgers. Large earthquake (1906) releases strain throughout the region leading to signi cantly less earthquakes in the decades to come. Probability of magnitude 6. 7 or greater by 2032 is 62% Take predicted ground shaking for each earthquake. Calculate the probability that ground shaking will exceed some level. Intensity of ground shaking that has a 50% probability of being exceeded within the next 30 years.
