INTEGBI 114 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Kurtosis, Ring Vaccination, Mathematical Modelling Of Infectious Disease
Document Summary
Lecture #7: spread of disease from a point source examples, cholera in london, 1850s, john snow, water pumps. If dispersal distribution is leptokurtic: advance is faster than with normal distribution with same average distance, advance is accelerating. Chestbut blight: accelerating spread, eastern us, in addition to temporal changes, spatial spread is dynamic, many infectious diseases show accelerating spread due to leptokurtic. Infected need to be identified rapidly: prevent dispersal of whole population, quarantine. If diseased individuals are not easily recognized: prevent immigration of infected individuals by keeping them thorugh the incubation period, 9 month quarantine period for dogs in england because of rabies, ring vaccination or culling. Ring vaccination or culling: pre-emptive: prevent new infections within a prescribed area, either by local vaccination, or (in animals/plants) by killing/culling all individuals locally. Stochastic models of disease invasion: takes randomness into account, and calculate probabilities and expectations of outcomes.
