Rising Powers.docx

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University of California - Berkeley
Political Science

Rising Powers I. Who are the Rising Powers? o First modern times that non-western developing countries are pushing to the top ranks of world power (Japan is only a partial power since X military power) o BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) got attention in 2005, Goldman Sachs study: With the current trends, by 2050 the combined power of the BRICS would exceed the G6 II. How do we analyze their rise? What does this mean for us? A. It’s a threat, bad news, should resist this rise B. Yes, they are rising, but it’s manageable because they are different from past powers and power challenges –why? 1. Institutions are different: world is different and more institutionalized than times of past power challenges can ease their transition into the global order (neoliberal institutionalism) 2. States are different: some argue that these powers are not trying to militarily challenge existing powers 3. Benefits of economic interdependence- economic powers are deeply connected (trade and investment) with other states; benefits as well as cost of conflict is very high C. This is a game changer –World without the West o Agree with the assimilationist view (It’ll be different because of global institutions, the benefits of being integrated with the global economy; rising powers X challenge power in the same way) BUT do argue that this view is too simple o Though they may not be a military challenge, won’t assimilate into our way; skeptical that the rising BRICS will just join the ―liberalist American way‖ o Instead, argue that these states, esp. China, will lead their own way, not necessarily in conflict with already established powers o LDC Connectedness Ex) Substantially increasing trade within the developing world, BRICS building relationships between the developing states (China’s increasing investment in Africa), increasing connectedness within BRICS and the rest of the world o Sometimes relies on a different view of internationalism from that of which had dominated post WWII Ex) Often said that our connections with the developing world come with strings attached, political conditionality, but theirs do not –idea that domestic concerns are not the concerns of our trading investment o Not threaten to take away power but not just simply agree with the norms of international politics o With regards to China and Russia, one response: ―this is all transitory – they are on their way to becoming liberal democracies‖  assumes that our wayrds the only way o BUT 3 group of scholars argue that there might be another way that is not democratic or liberal; if that is the case, global power may end up being shared among states that are neither similar nor enemies III. History of US-China relations A. US-China relations during the Cold War 1. Creation of PRC and ROC o 1949- Chinese Communist Party won the civil war & established the ―People’s Republic of China‖; Nationalists (KNP) lost & retreated to Taiwan –―Republic of China‖  Taiwan has become a continual issue in China-US Relations: Mainland China regards Taiwan as one, but Taiwan’s ability to survive as a separate political entity is the support of the US o US was not happy and thought it’d be the downfall of mainland China; had assumed during the WWII up to 1949 that China would be their major ally but becomes an ally with Japan by default (burdensome since they can’t take care of own security) o US recognizes Taiwan as the ―Legitimate‖ Government of China & Taiwan got China’s seat in the SC  Sino-Soviet Alliance & the Korean War which reinforces US commitment to Taiwan, Japan and South Korea o China’s goals 1) Legitimacy and recognition as legitimate govt. of China 2) regain Taiwan 3) End China’s 100 Years of Humiliation of invaded, economically exploited, and partially colonized by Western powers and Japan 2. Sino-Soviet split beginning with Khrushchev –denounced Stalin, normalized relations with the US, moved away from
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