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Lecture 13

CAS IR 365 Lecture 13: Shaping China’s Choices
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Department
International Relations
Course Code
CAS IR 365
Professor
Min Ye

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Lecture 13: Shaping China’s Choices
The Soviet Collapse and China’s Rise, 1991-2000
The record of managing rising China in the post-Cold War era: more success than failure, more
cooperation than conflict, more coordination than discord
Worrisome trends: China insecure at home, more belligerent toward neighbors; the US asked
China to do more
George H. W. Bush: Tiananmen and the End of Cold War
Background: Soviet Gorbachev reform → exploding democracy inside China
Tiananmen crackdown and economic sanction of China
Chinese narrative: “peaceful evolution,” new authoritarianism
HW: continue embassy and continue economic ties, sent national security advisor for secrete
meetings with Deng Xiaoping--leaked in the press
Most favored nation status
1991: Soviet dissolved; War in the Gulf
Taiwan-US-Mainland
1972 Shanghai Communiqué: “one China”
1979 US-China normalization communiqué: “one China”
1979 TRA: sufficient defensive arms to Taiwan
1982 August 17 Communiqué: reduction of arms sale in quantity and quality
Strategic context: anti-Soviet; honeymoon period
Late 1992, sale of 150 F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan, setting a precedent
Democratization inside China: Lee Tenghui
Challenge for the US: deter China from coercing Taiwan; reassure China US does not support
Taiwan independence
Somalia and Multilateral Intervention
With the end of the Cold War, the US set a new precedent in multilateral intervention in Somalia
out of humanitarian consideration
China reluctantly voted yes, but qualified it as “a unique case”
“Peace-keeping”
Clinton Administration
From threats of sanction to WTO accession
Clinton’s campaign: “butchers in Beijing”
Clinton’s early tenure: threat of MFN rejection each year, “in your-face approach on human rights
in China
“Economic sanction is simply the wrong tool to political liberalization in China” (p.181)
Discord in US-Japan alliance: economic friction
Yin He Incident 1993: suspected sale to Iran
NPT: China signed in 1992
North Korea Crisis
1991 Soviet collapse; 1992 China-South Korea normalization
1993-4: first nuclear crisis
1994 agreed framework
China’s role: “nuanced--but ultimately helpful--role”
2002 nuclear crisis
2003 Six Party Talks
Impact on US security policy:
1. Prioritize security in Asia strategy
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Description
Lecture 13: Shaping Chinas Choices The Soviet Collapse and Chinas Rise, 1991-2000 The record of managing rising China in the post-Cold War era: more success than failure, more cooperation than conflict, more coordination than discord Worrisome trends: China insecure at home, more belligerent toward neighbors; the US asked China to do more George H. W. Bush: Tiananmen and the End of Cold War Background: Soviet Gorbachev reform exploding democracy inside China Tiananmen crackdown and economic sanction of China Chinese narrative: peaceful evolution, new authoritarianism HW: continue embassy and continue economic ties, sent national security advisor for secrete meetings with Deng Xiaoping--leaked in the press Most favored nation status 1991: Soviet dissolved; War in the Gulf Taiwan-US-Mainland 1972 Shanghai Communiqu: one China 1979 US-China normalization communiqu: one China 1979 TRA: sufficient defensive arms to Taiwan 1982 August 17 Communiqu: reduction of arms sale in quantity and quality Strategic context: anti-Soviet; honeymoon period Late 1992, sale of 150 F-16 fighter jets to Taiwan, setting a precedent Democratization inside China: Lee Tenghui Challenge for the US: deter China from coercing Taiwan; reassure China US does not support Taiwan independence Somalia and Multilateral Intervention With the end of the Cold War, the US set a new precedent in multilateral intervention in Somalia out of humanitarian consideration China reluctantly voted yes, but qualified it as a unique case Peace-keeping Clinton Administration From threats of sanction to WTO accession Clintons campaign: butchers in Beijing Clintons early tenure: threat of MFN rejection each year, in your-face approach on human rights in China Economic sanction is simply the wrong tool to political liberalization in China (p.181) Discord in US-Japan alliance: economic friction Yin He Incident 1993: suspected sale to Iran NPT: China signed in 1992 North Korea Crisis 1991 Soviet collapse; 1992 China-South Korea normalization 1993-4: first nuclear crisis 1994 agreed framework Chinas role: nuanced--but ultimately helpful--role 2002 nuclear crisis 2003 Six Party Talks Impact on US security policy: 1. Prioritize security in Asia strategy
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