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Lecture 7

CAS PO 111 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Collective Action, Plurality Voting System, Divided Government


Department
Political Science
Course Code
CAS PO 111
Professor
David Scott Palmer
Lecture
7

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Presidential Campaigns
Invisible Primary/ The money Primary
Raise money,
Build campaign organizations
Seek endorsements
Visit Key States Debate opponents
Primaries and Caucuses
Primaries: Elections between members of the same party
Caucuses: Meetings to elect delegates
Winning the Nomination
February
Iowa Caucus
New Hampshire Primary
South Carolina Primary
Nevada Caucus
March
Super Tuesday: Al, AK, AR, CO, GA, MA, MN, NC, OK, TN TX, VT, VA
Calendar varies over time. National and State parties fight over timing of
primaries
Many states want to be early to have more influence in the process
More time and money spent in the early states
Some states prefer a later primary where they can be influential where
they can be influential if the race is close
2016 Election Scenarios
Hillary Clinton wins (86%)
Donald Trump wins (14%)
Evan McMullin wins (<1% chance)
Republican alternative to Donald Trump
Winning the presidential election requires a majority, not a plurality of the
Electoral College
Very small chance that McMullin wins Utah and no one wins >270 EVs
House decides the presidency: one vote per state delegation
Republicans control 33 state delegations
How many would support Trump? McMullin?
Senate votes for Vice President
Two Party System
The Democratic and Republican parties have competed since the 1850s
Third parties are rarely successful over the long term
Why do we only have two parties, when other countries have many parties
Duverger’s Law
Presidential-congressional gov instead of parliamentary gov
Single member districts and plurality rule instead of proportional
representation
Why do political parties form
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