CAS PO 151 Lecture Notes - Lecture 5: Hu Jintao, Relative Deprivation, Institutional Revolutionary Party
10 Aug 2018
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Are Authoritarian Regimes Stable?
Some of them last longer than 70 years, but others last only a few months.
One factor is whether or not they’re legitimate.
Another factor is institutionalization.
o Some horizontal accountability for executive department/leaders
o Succession can be more smoothly managed
o Institutions can be formal or informal
China and Mexico: Regime Stability
People’s Republic of China founded in 1949
Mexico’s authoritarian regime lasts 1929-2000
They both weathered popular challenges (uprising of the people)
o Mexico’s Tlatelolco massacre, 1968
o Tiananmen Square protests, China 1989
Durability benefits from elite power-sharing institutions
Mexico: Revolution and Aftermath
Revolution 1910-1917- overthrows the dictator
1917- Constitution: no re-election
Post- revolutionary situation chaotic
o Armed factions maneuvering for control
o Violent transfers of power, including assassination
Late 1920’s: Calles consolidates personal control
o Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), 1929
o Control challenged by Cardenas, 1934-1940
Leadership succession: Dedazo
Literal meaning: “finger-pointing” or “tapping”
Informal rule, introduced by Cardenas
Current president chooses the next PRI candidate
o There’ s no campaigning for nomination
President has no power after their term ends
Rival elites have incentives not to jump ship
Starting in 1958, only cabinet members are eligible
End of Dedazo and PRI Regime
Emergence of PRI dissidents in the 1980’s
o Reaction to neoliberal reform, post-debt crisis
Opposition parties gain strength in the 1990’s
o More options for dissatisfied elites to abandon PRI
President institutes party primaries in 2000
PRI loses 2000 presidential election
China: Mao Zedong, 1949-1976
Personalist authoritarian regime
Extreme policies: Great Leap Forward, 1958-1961; cultural revolution, 1966-1976
Purges potential challengers
o Deng Xiaoping, Liu Shaoqui, Lin Biao
1976: Hands power to weak successor, Hua Guofeng
o Deng Xiaoping pushes him aside by about 1980
China: Deng Xiaoping, 1978-1992
Not a cult of personality, but personalist elements
Like Mao, purges several chosen successors
o Hu Yaobang, Zhao Ziyang
Hands power to politically weak successor, Jiang Zemin
o Other factions struggle for influence in power vacuum
Document Summary
Some of them last longer than 70 years, but others last only a few months: some horizontal accountability for executive department/leaders, succession can be more smoothly managed, institutions can be formal or informal. One factor is whether or not they"re legitimate. People"s republic of china founded in (cid:883)(cid:891)4(cid:891) Mexico"s authoritarian regime lasts (cid:883)(cid:891)(cid:884)(cid:891)-2000: mexico"s tlatelolco massacre, (cid:883)(cid:891)6(cid:890, tiananmen square protests, china 1989. They both weathered popular challenges (uprising of the people) Leadership succession: dedazo: armed factions maneuvering for control, violent transfers of power, including assassination, institutional revolutionary party (pri), 1929, control challenged by cardenas, 1934-1940. Literal meaning: (cid:498)finger-pointing(cid:499) or (cid:498)tapping(cid:499: there" s no campaigning for nomination. Current president chooses the next pri candidate. President has no power after their term ends. Rival elites have incentives not to jump ship. Starting in 1958, only cabinet members are eligible. Emergence of pr) dissidents in the (cid:883)(cid:891)(cid:890)(cid:882)"s. Opposition parties gain strength in the (cid:883)(cid:891)(cid:891)(cid:882)"s.
