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PM Lecture 1.pdf

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CAS EC 102
Jay Zagorsky

PM Lecture #1 Thursday, March 6, 2014 3:39 PM Macroeconomics and Ukraine - Ukraine appears to be splitting apart, Crimea is leaving ○ Crimea used to be part of Russia ○ Crimea is important economically  Russian pipeline and Russian Naval Head quarts  Best port for Ukraine, control of the black sea - Crimean War (1853to 1856) ○ War between Russia, France, Britain and OttomanEmpire  Change in the light brigade: Cavalry slaughtered by modern armaments  Florence Nightingale: Modern nursing using statistics on wound treats  One result of war; Russia felt they earned Crimea because they shed so much blood defending it  Actual outcomeof the war was not decisive - Goals of USA ○ Don't want to go to war with Russia ○ Do want to punish Russia for action ○ On the table right now; sanctions and canceling joint Russia-USA and Russian-NATO exercises ○ USA will not grant visas to people involved in Crimea takeover - What is Russia's EconomicWeakness? ○ Oil and natural gas are the Achilles heel of the Russian economy ○ EIA states that Russia is the second largest producer of dry natural gas and third largest liquid fuel producer  Russia's economyis highly dependent on its hydrocarbons, oil and gas revenues account for more than 50% of the federal budget - 2 Big Problemsof sanctioning Russia fuel ○ Shutting off/blockading oil and gas exports might trigger a military response by Russia ○ It will also hurt German economya lot  Buys biggest shares of oil from
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