CLPS 0200 Lecture Notes - Lecture 13: Base Rate Fallacy, Conjunction Fallacy, Availability Heuristic
11 Nov 2016
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04-07: judgment judgment judgment as subjective/intuitive evaluation of likelihood of an event. Standard normative model of decision-making: utility of option x = f(probability, value, choose option with highest expected utility base rate neglect failure to account for base rate when making probability judgments. Bayes" rule: p(h|d) is proportional to p(d|h)*p(h, normalize: divide by sum (denominator) Probabilistic inference is really hard heuristics and biases. Representativeness: the probability that a belongs to/originates from b is evaluated by degree to which a resembles b. Availability: assess frequency or probability of an event by ease with which instances can be brought to mind. Anchoring and adjustment: make estimates by starting at an initial value and adjusting to yield a final answer: adjustments are typically insufficient. Causality: judge events more likely if they can explain them causally. Proximity heuristic: use judgments of closeness (distance) to estimate risks and probabilities representativeness and perceived randomness.
