DEA 1500 Lecture Notes - Lecture 25: Base Rate, Asymptote, Circadian Rhythm
27 Apr 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
REVIEW
Rainfall
- Deviations from standardized rainfall, and change in intergroup conflict
- Deviations → increase in intergroup conflict
Risk
- Two kinds (formal and exceptional) of assessment
- Utilizing exceptional risk assessment leads to errors/predictable biases
- Base rate neglect
- Ignoring all of the people who smoke pot but don’t use hard drugs, for
example, then saying that “smoking pot leads to hard drug use”
- Novelty and dread
- Dread associated with an event increases the judgement that something
is going to happen (injury/mortality/etc)
- Catastrophic potential
- If risk does occur, a lot of people would get injured/killed but the risk of
that serious injury is much lower than expected
- Overestimate risk due to the potential of catastrophe
- Voluntariness of exposure
- Perceived risk of death based on social identity (expert, student, league
of women voters)
- Experts put nuclear power as low risk of mortality while other
groups put it as highest risk
- Framing
- How do we communicate information about risk?
- Risk seeking when outcome is negative, but risk averse when outcome is
certain (and positive)
HER PROCESS: LIGHTING
1. Visual effects
a. Kind of fluorescent light can make a difference (direct vs. indirect)
b. Performance
i. Little light → low performance, adding a little bit of light makes big
difference in performance
ii. As you get brighter and brighter it starts to asymptote
c. Natural light may have implications for cognitive performance (controversial)
i. Children in brighter classrooms (more natural light) may have faster
improvements in reading and math
d. Glare (performance and health)
i. Residential lighting and falls (result of too little light)
1. Lighting and changes in visual systems over time
2. Contrast between background and foreground diminishes with age
3. Fast change in illumination
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Document Summary
Deviations from standardized rainfall, and change in intergroup conflict. Two kinds (formal and exceptional) of assessment. Utilizing exceptional risk assessment leads to errors/predictable biases. Ignoring all of the people who smoke pot but don"t use hard drugs, for example, then saying that smoking pot leads to hard drug use . Dread associated with an event increases the judgement that something is going to happen (injury/mortality/etc) If risk does occur, a lot of people would get injured/killed but the risk of that serious injury is much lower than expected. Overestimate risk due to the potential of catastrophe. Perceived risk of death based on social identity (expert, student, league of women voters) Experts put nuclear power as low risk of mortality while other groups put it as highest risk. Risk seeking when outcome is negative, but risk averse when outcome is certain (and positive) Her process: lighting: visual effects, kind of fluorescent light can make a difference (direct vs. indirect, performance.
