POLSCI 242 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Superdelegate
8 May 2018
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POLISCI Lecture Notes
9.18 Presidential Primaries, Polling, Election Forecasting
Election forecasting usually means some sort of regression model
Presidential vote = a set of variables that we think explains the presidential outcome
o Variables usually include
▪ Presidential approval rate
▪ Economy
▪ Incumbency
1992 – 2008 = election forecasts were 85% correct
Fundamentals – strongly shape the presidential election outcome
o In essence, we are saying that history matters
o May not take into account the evolving world
o Does the campaign even matter?
Drawbacks of forecasting: the variables are not everything that is considered
o Such as party insiders, likeability, ability to fundraise, scandals (or war), campaigning
structure/skill, demographics (race, gender, age of the candidate)
Presidential Primary
Current approval rating for the incumbent president
o Obama’s approval rating for the election was bad
o History tells us that his rating was not that bad
o Correlation = 0.80, accurate indicator for outcomes of presidential elections
o Party polarization just indicates that there will be very little crossover
During the 2012 election, most people were focused on the job market
o Blamed high unemployment rate on Bush
o Economy was still growing, just very slowly
o Unemployment and vote share are NOT correlated!
o Change in GDP and vote ARE correlated
We’re really bad at predicting Iowa
Structure of Iowa’s presidential primary election – caucus structure (very different from the
other primaries)
o GOP Caucus
▪ Voters have to be registered
▪ There is a speech (sometimes matters)
▪ Vote
o Democratic Caucus
▪ Voters have to be registered
▪ Form preference groups – if the group for your candidate is too small for the
candidate to actually get the delegates, you can change your mind
▪ Delegates are awarded proportionally
o Precinct county convention state convention
▪ It’s possible that the candidate who wins the caucuses may not be in the election in
the state convention
We can use prediction markets to find indicators of the election outcome
o Can be manipulated
o How does money raised influence public perception?
▪ Ex: Trump said that he will use a billion of his own money if he has to
• American people may not feel comfortable with this much money in politics
• Trump stated that his personal wealth insulates against lobbyists
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