IR 360 Lecture Notes - Lecture 5: Munich Agreement, Erectile Dysfunction, Vang Pao
1 May 2018
School
Department
Course
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Coercive Diplomacy
POSC/IR 360 – Crisis Management
Unit Five
What Is Coercive Diplomacy?
• An odd form of Compellence- was of demonstrating displeasure without making an overt
threat
• Like a dog growling- know an escalation is coming but it hasn’t come yet
• Not Blackmail Strategy- Scottish word, black denotes a challenge and mail refers to the
idea of paying rent and so it means “unwelcome rent” basically
• Forced concession of some sort in order to appease the threatener
• Not the same as deterrence
• Not Deterrence
• Deterrence persuades an opponent not to do something
• CD persuades them to halt that thing
• CD persuades them to reverse that thing
• CD tries to change their decisionmaking, or even their identity in the government by
tossing them out
• Essentially it boils down to a defensive use of force
• A defensive strategy employed against an adversary attempting to change the status quo
in his own favor
• Where do we see things like that?
• Mussolini seized Ethiopia, the League of Nations used CD to get him to
fall back, he didn’t…CD fails often
Other Options than CD
• Drawing a Line- I admit my impotence or powerlessness in a situation and draw a line
• Risky strategy
• Never draw a line unless you firmly tend to uphold it
• But already conceding to your opponent their victory (that they have so far
achieved) with the intent to halt further activity
• Example: Munich Accords
• Buying Time to Explore a Negotiated Settlement- still conceding, but need more time
because if you can negotiate a little more you can do a little better
• When the defender is inferior
• When the adversary’s position may have some merit and you cant altogether dismiss
them
• When the immediate use or threat of use of Force could be seriously damaging to the
defender’s interests
Retaliation and Reprisals- I cannot change what you have just done, so I will punish you
in some other way
Engaging in a Test of Capabilities- saw a lot during the cold war, we posture, we show
what is able to be done
How Does Coercive Diplomacy Work?
• Replace the Assumption of a Rational Opponent with an Empirically Derived Model
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
• Instead of saying this is how the situation is going to work, I’m not concerned
with your rational ideas of a payoff are, I know you can only take so much
pain…I’m not interested in your thinking processes, I’m only interested in how
much you can take (when do you reach the point where you cannot take it any
more)
• When does your nerve break (not interested in your rational thought processes)
• Allow for Contextual Variables- trying to understand there will always be the little thing
there that makes things a little more intense or a little more amplified
• The Trigger-Response Mechanism- some form of immediate response to a decisive event
• CD doesn’t occur in a vacuum, it occurs because one driving event sparked it
• Plus Two Others! (DO THE READING FOR THESE)
Assemble a Checklist of Elements about Your Opponent (idea of what you’re dealing with
and what you need to do)
• What to demand of an opponent- you cannot ask for ridiculous things
• Whether or how to create a sense of urgency for compliance
• Need to make it so they don’t just say “talk to the hand”
• Punishments for non compliance – both in potency and credibility
• If you make a threat, how do you punish them
• Some of the best ways to create urgency is to make them think a bad thing will
happen, so how do you do this?
• Positive inducements – or carrots as well as sticks
• These should always be there
Select the Demand Form
• Classic Ultimatum (latin for the “last argument”)- usually three keys elements
• Demand- I want this
• Consequences- or else
• Deadline- by this time
• Implicit in this is absolute signaling (making your wishes clear to your adversary
with the assumption your adversary will absolutely understand your intentions)
very embodiment of signaling
• Tacit Ultimatum- one of those three conditions is missing, and its typically some lack of
clarity on the consequence, or a weakness in the signaling on deadline, or weakness in the
signaling of what I want
• And can give your opponent maneuver room (which you might want your
opponent to have)
• Gradual Turning of the Screw
• Have a menu of things to do to your opponent and you do them in a particular
order to push pressure to eventually force opponent to make concede to what you
want
• Try and See Approach (most common)
• I don’t know what to do so I’ll just do stuff, I really don’t have an answer
• Do everything you can until you get the thing that works or run out of time and
the crisis is decided on its own mechanisms
• Never a good response
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
What Is an Ultimatum? (critically important)
• Clear set of demands
• Timeline, or deadline
• Clear consequences if refused or accepted
Ultimata (latin plural), Generally
• Not all ultimata involve the threat of force. The Classic Ultimatum does.
• A Tacit Ultimatum has an implied or unstated element, but this should be intuitively
obvious.
• Nobody should have to question this means trouble
• Tacit ultimatum is so closely similar to compellence, hard to tell them apart
Force & Diplomacy (making threats counts)
• Military power did not become less important after the Cold War, but more important
• NATO expanded, increased its obligations while decreasing its capabilities
American Power becomes Paramount (at least for about 10 years)
• No one else… 1991-2001
• No superpower to constrain it
• Global crisis multiply- a number of problems develop
• Cardinal (principal) interests were at stake
• Weren’t things the American could ignore, they had to pay attention
• Even relatively minor cardinal interests should not be ignored
• Economic & political means, sic diplomacy, had failed
• So the only thing left was to throw a punch
• Only global power projector available
• Military force was uniquely able to protect interests (uniquely useful in these situations)
The Use of Coercive Power (the use of force, the use of military force)
• Diplomatic use – threats, etc.
• Threat of force, not it’s actual application
• Demonstrative and exemplary use of power
• Meaning I show something, I show you what I am able to do, I show you what my
capabilities are
• Full scale military operations, or war (if necessary)
Coercive Diplomacy occupies the middle ground where the dog growls, the middle ground
from diplomacy or doing nothing and fighting, and gives a spectrum of options
Japanese-American Relations Leading up to Pearl Harbor 1941
A. Background to the Crisis
• Sino-Japanese War of 1937 (1932)- third one
• Japanese have invaded China three times
• US has decent relationship with Chinese
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Document Summary
Where do we see things like that: mussolini seized ethiopia, the league of nations used cd to get him to fall back, he didn"t cd fails often. Retaliation and reprisals- i cannot change what you have just done, so i will punish you in some other way. Engaging in a test of capabilities- saw a lot during the cold war, we posture, we show what is able to be done: replace the assumption of a rational opponent with an empirically derived model. Select the demand form: demand- i want this, consequences- or else, deadline- by this time. What is an ultimatum? (critically important: clear set of demands, timeline, or deadline, clear consequences if refused or accepted, not all ultimata involve the threat of force. The classic ultimatum does: a tacit ultimatum has an implied or unstated element, but this should be intuitively.
