IR 360 Lecture Notes - Lecture 2: Rational Choice Theory, David Easton, Rationality
1 May 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
Classical Crisis Decision Theories
POSC/IR 360
Unit Two
David Easton Says CM Theory Is:
• The outputs of the political system (outputs are the logical production of the
thing…basically, if you are this things, then these things should happen)
• Typically means, the political system allows us to struggle against each other
without killing each other (order and structure and restraint on our more negative
impulses)
• By which values are authoritatively allocated within a society giving us the chance to
operate within frameworks
• The act of choosing among available alternatives about which uncertainty exists
• There are some things I just don’t know about…how do I deal with Kimmy?
• Crises in foreign policy abound, especially. Why?
• Uncertainty does exist, and things look different from where we stand
• In foreign policy situations (my country vs another country) it’s almost always a
crisis because it’s me at stake and I’m not just getting it from those guys over
there, I’m getting it from my rivals at home (both an external and internal front-
made worse because of the domestic situation)
Relevant Variables
• Not emphasize the state as an actor in Graham Allison’s approach, because the actor is
pretty complicated
• I care about the internal moving parts that contribute to the actor, the state is not a
unitary actor
• Reflect on the leadership
• Whoever is the captain of the ship will determine a lot about what direction the
ship will take
• Concentrate on the human aspects of decisionmaking
• The way humans interact to make a decision says a lot…how are you making a
decision 1 hour in the bunker vs 20 hours in the bunker? What’s the quality of
decisionmaking at those points? And what if I hate the guy on the other side of the
room?
• People lose their patience, they get tired, they lose it
• Acknowledge domestic formulations
• Domestic realities of politics
• How will this play in an upcoming election, how will it play to a
constituency
• Perception, filtering and psychological aspects are a central element
• How things are understood influences how things will turn out
• The ability to see things clearly is not always part of the equation because of
perceptions or understandings of relations
The Decision Situation
• Not the same as problem solving, but may be equated to it. Why?
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• Within problem solving, I approach things in a very specific, mathematical way
that you usually enjoy (leisurely and without terrible consequences)…crisis
decision making is agony and you would never enter into it unless it was
absolutely necessary
• Urgency (really terrible consequences, which is what makes it urgent, and these time
constraints change the game)
• Imperfect knowledge (!!!!!) GOLDEN RULE OF CRISIS MANAGEMENT (never have
enough info)
• A person can be altogether different when they aren’t under extreme pressure
• The difficult challenge of assessing the motivations, intentions and capabilities of the
“other” side
• You don’t really have good knowledge about them, and you cant be sure what the
other side thinks
• Decisionmaking both detracts and exalts the importance of leadership. Why?
• Because the leader is the dominant influence in decisionmaking situations, people
do not argue with the leader (they dance around the leader, discern what the
leader wants, then agree with them)
Graham Allison’s Three Models
A. Rational Actor
B. Organizational Behavioral Model
C. Bureaucratic Politics Model
The Rational Actor Model
Emphasizes Knowable Values as a Barometer of Decision. (I know their values, so I think I’ll be
able to predict how they’ll make a decision)
(Irrationality is defined as not knowing what motivates you to do what you do)
Core RAM Concepts (these are all interconnected, and you ignore them at your peril)
• Goals and objectives are definable (lines up things that are to be achieved), and are
defined, very specifically, for:
• Payoff- what I am expecting to get back from this
• Utility- usefulness (how I can make payoff for this)
• Something can have a payoff but not great utility, these are very different
• Preference- something is more attractive than the other; how we weigh payoff and
utility
• Rationality- I look at these things and I have a way of analyzing them based on their
qualities/attractiveness
• There are always factors that weigh in in decisionmaking in relation to payoff
and utility (fits into wider perspective as to what I want)
• Level of values, attractiveness, how they fit in to the big picture
• Alternatives may exist and a choice is made if there are
• There are typically alternatives to decisions and you weigh those options based on
rationality, payoff, and utility
• If you’re wise, you always come up with alternatives because very very often
alternatives indicate a course of action that can help, even if you don’t chose them
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• Consequences or outcomes are recognized and assessed
• Example: Obama Red Line in Syria….Crimea
• Need to ask yourself as a decisionmaker, are there substantial consequences?
• A choice is made based on:
• Payoff- establish goals and look to payoffs
• Utility- what is the ultimate utility of each option
• Preference- determine my preferences
• Ranking- rank options based on these things and have clear reasoning as to why they
are ranked the way they are ranked
Rationality
1. Levels of rationality based on information in the sense that rationality is based on knowing
values, and the level of information I have about those values is of great importance (how
I think about that information is super important)
• Nominal state- I have facts, I have information; it is the existence of something
• Ex: there are missiles in cuba
• Generic state- I have given a profile to my information, my info now has dimensions,
character, qualitative valuation (more than just minimum information)
• Ex: they are intercontinental ballistic missiles
• Identified state- I have progressed beyond dimension to information, and have moved to a
level of confidence with it, and I now identify with it (associate feelings with it)
• Ex: the missiles are operational
• Personified state- I am utterly intimate with it, the information is me, I believe in it, I
know it backwards and forwards (moved into the realm of actualizing our values, the
more the information becomes precise, the more I am involved)
• Ex: I know where they are, and I know they have nuclear warheads
2. Comprehensive (unbounded) rationality- very straightforward, hinges on utility function and
value maximization (this can color absolutely every decision)
• Utility function- how good does this look to me, how valuable is this to me
• Value maximizing- I look at the options and decide what most gets me the things I want
in the way I want them
• Objective- what do I want to achieve and will it be achieved, more of an on the whole
thing
• Generalizing- square the circle, rationalize my decision, start to make excuses that
prevent my doubts from coming through
3. Bounded rationality- like, you know the Pope has bounded rationality and a bounded
decisionmaking world (you know there is somethings he wont say or do)
- can be as simple as saying “im a democrat” or something like that; specifying a public
belief system under which you make your decisions
• Value injecting- start what values first, I don’t begin by asking how much of what I like
is in this, I begin by asking how much of what I like can be realized by this (don’t start by
asking if this is good or bad, determine values first, then determine if its good or bad)
• Limited knowledge- don’t have complete information, I could be wrong
• Subjective- highly subjective, I don’t have the ability to apply my knowledge in a
detached way
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Document Summary
Why: uncertainty does exist, and things look different from where we stand. Golden rule of crisis management (never have enough info: a person can be altogether different when they aren"t under extreme pressure, the difficult challenge of assessing the motivations, intentions and capabilities of the. Other side: you don"t really have good knowledge about them, and you cant be sure what the other side thinks, decisionmaking both detracts and exalts the importance of leadership. Why: because the leader is the dominant influence in decisionmaking situations, people do not argue with the leader (they dance around the leader, discern what the leader wants, then agree with them) Graham allison"s three models: rational actor, organizational behavioral model, bureaucratic politics model. Emphasizes knowable values as a barometer of decision. (i know their values, so i think i"ll be able to predict how they"ll make a decision)
