CPO-3034 Lecture Notes - Lecture 9: Nazi Propaganda, Semiparametric Model
Document Summary
Examining a most likely case for strong campaign effects: hitler"s speeches and the. Given the devastating historical consequences, hitler"s rise to power amidst an unprecedented propaganda campaign constitutes one of the most notorious cases for campaign effects research. Although contemporary witnesses and historians seem unanimous in recognizing the importance of hitler"s campaign for the electoral success of the nazi party, empirical evidence is scant. We collected data about hitler"s speeches and gauge their impact on voter support at five national elections preceding the dictatorship. We use a semi-parametric difference-in-differences approach to estimate effects in the face of potential confounding due to the deliberate scheduling of events. Our findings suggest that, while hitler"s speeches appear rationally targeted, their impact on the nazis" electoral fortunes were negligible. Only the 1932 presidential runoff, an election preceded by an extraordinarily short, intense and one sided campaign, yields consistent effects.
