POS 3713 Lecture 9: Lecture 9
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If the extreme value was due to luck, then the next time should be less extreme with average luck. More dangerous to assume an apparent pattern is due to chance than to a real threat. We are descendants of people who were good at noticing, avoiding dangerous patterns. If a stude(cid:374)t does (cid:449)ell, it"s p(cid:396)o(cid:271)a(cid:271)l(cid:455) due to t(cid:449)o fa(cid:272)to(cid:396)s: skill and luck. If a stude(cid:374)t does poo(cid:396)l(cid:455), it"s p(cid:396)o(cid:271)a(cid:271)l(cid:455) due to t(cid:449)o fa(cid:272)to(cid:396)s: la(cid:272)k of skill a(cid:374)d (cid:271)ad lu(cid:272)k. Imagine a 10 question true or false quiz. A student knows the answers to 6 questions, guesses on the remaining 4, has good luck. Great luck: 4 correct guesses = +40% of total. Good luck: 3 correct guesses = +30% of total. Average luck: 2 correct guesses = +20% of total. Bad luck: 1 correct guess = +10% of total. Very bad luck: 0 correct guesses = +0% of total.