PSYCH 104 Lecture Notes - Lecture 9: Base Rate Fallacy, Illusory Correlation, Confirmation Bias
Document Summary
Representativeness: the tendency to judge the frequency or likelihood of an event by the extent to which it resembles the typical case. Ex: in a series of 10-coin tosses, most people judge the series. Hhtththtth to be more likely than the series hhhhhhhhhh (where h is heads and t is tails), even though both are equally likely. Availability: the tendency to judge the frequency or likelihood of an event by the ease with which relevant instances come to mind. Ex: people overestimate the frequency of dramatic deaths (dying in an airplane crash) and underestimate the frequency of less dramatic deaths (dying from lung cancer) Simulation: the tendency to judge the frequency or likelihood of an event by the ease with which you can imagine (or mentally simulate) an event. Ex: in the olympics, bronze medalists appear to be happier than silver medalists because it is easier for a silver medalist to imagine being a gold medalist.
