SW24lecture3.docx

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Department
General Education
Course Code
General Education Societies of the World 24
Professor
Sue Goldie

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SW24 – Population Dynamics (Lecture 3) Underlying Principles (3) Interdependence and interconnection Average health and distribution of health Population perspective Global context ­  Moving across borders ­­ she showed me that picture of the Bostonian lady on Arab idol Plethora of communication and cellphones, etc (Dengue spreading across borders through dirty tires) Leveraging global forces In order to get a general average idea of the health of a population ­reasonable snapshot would be to use child mortality and life expectancy ­common metric is age specific mortality ­when we have this, we can calculate time influence, life expectancy, age tables, etc ­How do we get this data?  ­A lot easier to count death than to count the severity of cardiovascular disease ­Navigating your data Key Transitions influencing world health (demographic and epidemiologic)      ­demographic: changes in population dynamics      ­changes in health patterns (Wed) Population Dynamics!! 271 births in the last minute      ­27 were in more developed countries, and 245 in less developed countries      ­in 10 minutes, 111 infant deaths­­> 110 in less developed, 1 in developed!!       ­More births and more infant deaths in less developed countries, drastically      ­Discussing India, Nigeria, South Korea, and Afghanistan (in order of Population size) How would you know if a population is increasing or declining?      ­People do three things­­ births, death, migration           ­deaths: mortality: age specific (neonatal, infant, under­5), maternal mortality            ­life expectancy is higher where infant mortality is lower, obvious opposite direction                ­if this isn't the case, look to disease or war      ­indicators about fertility:           ­fertility rates (different kinds)           ­total fertility rate: average number of children that would be born per woman if lived to  end of childbearing years and bore children according to given fertility rate at each age           ­replacement fertility­­ TFR of 2.0 ­­ population size would stay about the same because every  woman would have two kids to replace the two parents                ­below 2.0, decreasing­­ and above, increasing           ­Nigeria, Afghanistan, India, South Korea in order of TFR           ­Rates can vary within countries!                  ­Uganda, top fifth vs bottom fifth, mean of 8 kids vs. mean of 4 kids respectively ­­ wealth  is an influencing factor, heterogeneity via many factors will screw with our understanding of health  and populations           ­How may kids do women say are ideal?­­ Niger (9.1) vs Austria (1.6)      ­Migration­ the third thing that can happen with population movement           ­two kinds, in and out ­ emigration vs. immigra
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