Government 1295 Lecture Notes - Lecture 28: Drug Lord, Neoliberalism, Social Inequality
18 Jun 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
Final&on&May&8th
Review&sessions&on&Thursday&in&CGIS&south
And&Friday&on&May&5th&at&Fong&Auditorium
Know&the&terms&-- all&for&the&short&answer&part&of&exam
Clearest&case&of&success
•
More&than&any&other&case&-- has&created&viable&political&and&economic&
institutions
•
Seen&as&strongest&economy&in&LA&-- highest&growth&rate&in&last&25&years
•
Competitive&on&world&economic&competitive&index
•
Chile&liberalized& its&economy&more&than&anyone&else
§
10th&in&the&world&(ahead&of&US)&on&rankings&of&free&market&
economies
§
Taxes
□
Enforcing&rules&of&law
□
Or&is&it&due&to&institutional&foundation
§
Why?
○
How&sustainable&is&model?
○
Neoliberalism&has&generated&steady&economic&growth
•
Social&spending&has&doubled&since&1990
•
Levels&of&inequality&have&begun&to&decline
•
Successful&politically&-- only&case&that&didn't&experience&institutional&crisis&during&
1990's&on
•
Now&facing&a&crisis&of&representation
•
Key&challenge&in&years&to&come&is&to&narrow&gap&between&political&elite&
and&rest&of&population
○
Outsiders&are&finding&their&way&into&Chilean&politics
•
Chile
Last&five&years&both&are&basket-cases•
Mexico&has&plunged&into&violent&drug&lord•
Long-run&trajectory&in&both&cases&is&pretty&positive•
Mexico&was&authoritarian®ime
○
Brazil&seemed&ungovernable
○
Today&compared&to&1990&is&almost&night&and&day•
But&both&are&harder&to&govern&than&Chile
○
Uneven&rule&of&law&creates&potential&for&violence
○
Economic&growth&sluggish&in&both,&politics&has&been&messy/scandalous,&reform&
has&been&slow
•
Economic&growth&modest&since&democratization
○
All&three&presidents&failed&to&live&up&to&voters'&expectations
○
Drug&issues
○
After&NAFTA&went&into&effect,&Mexican&exports&quadrupled
○
But&wages&rising&in&China,&so&cost-advantage&has&been&wiped&out
§
Soaring&oil&prices&has&increased&shipping&costs&-- increases&
attractiveness&of&Mexico&as&trading&partner
§
China&crowded&out&Mexican&manufactured&exports
○
If&Trump&follows&through&on&plan&to&abandon&NAFTA,&it&would&derail&
economic&model&with&no&plan&B
§
Biggest&economic&threat&to&Mexico&now&is……&TRUMP
○
Established&3&party&system
§
Congress&and&supreme&court&have&become&independent&actors
§
In&political&realm,&Mexico's&biggest&accomplishment&is&democratization
○
Checks&and&Balances&are&real&in&Mexico
○
Governors&are&powerful&actors&for&the&first&time
○
Relations&between&cartels&and&local&governments&broke&down&-- causing&
violence
○
Turf&wars&lead&to&violence
○
Sent&in&army&(since&police&was&corrupted&by&drug&cartels)
§
War&on&drug&cartels&is&main&catalyst&for&violence
§
Instead&of&a&few&big&cartels,&they&were&broken&up&into&smaller&
cartels&which&lead&to&turf&wars&-- surge&of&violence
§
President&Calderon&launched&attack&on&drug&cartels
○
Mexico•
Economy&has&slumped&since&end&of&commodity&boom
○
Faced&huge&corruption&scandal:&Petro&something&scandal
○
Laid&a&foundation&for&new&welfare&state
§
Made&very&important&gains&on&social&front
○
Poor&Brazilians&now&free&to&vote&how&they&please
○
Party&system&may&be&melting&down
○
Challenges&to&the&state:&persistent&of&violence&and&meeting&demands&of&
middle&class
○
Twice&as&many&private&security&guards&than&police
○
Brazil•
Mexico&and&Brazil
Democracy&in&Argentina&has&proved&quite&resilient•
As&a&result,&has&fallen&further&behind&these&nations&in&quality&of&
democratic&institutions
○
Suffers&from&institutional&weakness,&unlike&Mexico,&Brazil,&and&Chile•
Argentina&congress&is&weak•
Argentina
What&does&LA&need&in&the&future?
Sustainable&economic&growth
Strong&institutions
Social&inequality&-- economic,&social,&cultural,&and&racial
Social&solidarity&-- sense&that&everyone&is&a&part&of&the&same&thing
4/27
Thursday,&April&27,&2017
10:09&AM
Final&on&May&8th
Review&sessions&on&Thursday&in&CGIS&south
And&Friday&on&May&5th&at&Fong&Auditorium
Know&the&terms&-- all&for&the&short&answer&part&of&exam
Clearest&case&of&success•
More&than&any&other&case&-- has&created&viable&political&and&economic&
institutions
•
Seen&as&strongest&economy&in&LA&-- highest&growth&rate&in&last&25&years•
Competitive&on&world&economic&competitive&index•
Chile&liberalized& its&economy&more&than&anyone&else
§
10th&in&the&world&(ahead&of&US)&on&rankings&of&free&market&
economies
§
Taxes□
Enforcing&rules&of&law□
Or&is&it&due&to&institutional&foundation
§
Why?
○
How&sustainable&is&model?
○
Neoliberalism&has&generated&steady&economic&growth•
Social&spending&has&doubled&since&1990•
Levels&of&inequality&have&begun&to&decline•
Successful&politically&-- only&case&that&didn't&experience&institutional&crisis&during&
1990's&on
•
Now&facing&a&crisis&of&representation•
Key&challenge&in&years&to&come&is&to&narrow&gap&between&political&elite&
and&rest&of&population
○
Outsiders&are&finding&their&way&into&Chilean&politics•
Chile
Last&five&years&both&are&basket-cases•
Mexico&has&plunged&into&violent&drug&lord•
Long-run&trajectory&in&both&cases&is&pretty&positive•
Mexico&was&authoritarian®ime
○
Brazil&seemed&ungovernable
○
Today&compared&to&1990&is&almost&night&and&day•
But&both&are&harder&to&govern&than&Chile
○
Uneven&rule&of&law&creates&potential&for&violence
○
Economic&growth&sluggish&in&both,&politics&has&been&messy/scandalous,&reform&
has&been&slow
•
Economic&growth&modest&since&democratization
○
All&three&presidents&failed&to&live&up&to&voters'&expectations
○
Drug&issues
○
After&NAFTA&went&into&effect,&Mexican&exports&quadrupled
○
But&wages&rising&in&China,&so&cost-advantage&has&been&wiped&out
§
Soaring&oil&prices&has&increased&shipping&costs&-- increases&
attractiveness&of&Mexico&as&trading&partner
§
China&crowded&out&Mexican&manufactured&exports
○
If&Trump&follows&through&on&plan&to&abandon&NAFTA,&it&would&derail&
economic&model&with&no&plan&B
§
Biggest&economic&threat&to&Mexico&now&is……&TRUMP
○
Established&3&party&system
§
Congress&and&supreme&court&have&become&independent&actors
§
In&political&realm,&Mexico's&biggest&accomplishment&is&democratization
○
Checks&and&Balances&are&real&in&Mexico
○
Governors&are&powerful&actors&for&the&first&time
○
Relations&between&cartels&and&local&governments&broke&down&-- causing&
violence
○
Turf&wars&lead&to&violence
○
Sent&in&army&(since&police&was&corrupted&by&drug&cartels)
§
War&on&drug&cartels&is&main&catalyst&for&violence
§
Instead&of&a&few&big&cartels,&they&were&broken&up&into&smaller&
cartels&which&lead&to&turf&wars&-- surge&of&violence
§
President&Calderon&launched&attack&on&drug&cartels
○
Mexico•
Economy&has&slumped&since&end&of&commodity&boom
○
Faced&huge&corruption&scandal:&Petro&something&scandal
○
Laid&a&foundation&for&new&welfare&state
§
Made&very&important&gains&on&social&front
○
Poor&Brazilians&now&free&to&vote&how&they&please
○
Party&system&may&be&melting&down
○
Challenges&to&the&state:&persistent&of&violence&and&meeting&demands&of&
middle&class
○
Twice&as&many&private&security&guards&than&police
○
Brazil•
Mexico&and&Brazil
Democracy&in&Argentina&has&proved&quite&resilient•
As&a&result,&has&fallen&further&behind&these&nations&in&quality&of&
democratic&institutions
○
Suffers&from&institutional&weakness,&unlike&Mexico,&Brazil,&and&Chile•
Argentina&congress&is&weak•
Argentina
What&does&LA&need&in&the&future?
Sustainable&economic&growth
Strong&institutions
Social&inequality&-- economic,&social,&cultural,&and&racial
Social&solidarity&-- sense&that&everyone&is&a&part&of&the&same&thing
4/27
Thursday,&April&27,&2017 10:09&AM
Document Summary
And friday on may 5th at fong auditorium. Know the terms -- all for the short answer part of exam. More than any other case -- has created viable political and economic institutions. Seen as strongest economy in la -- highest growth rate in last 25 years. Chile liberalized its economy more than anyone else. 10th in the world (ahead of us) on rankings of free market economies. Successful politically -- only case that didn"t experience institutional crisis during. Outsiders are finding their way into chilean politics. Key challenge in years to come is to narrow gap between political elite and rest of population. Long-run trajectory in both cases is pretty positive. Today compared to 1990 is almost night and day. Economic growth sluggish in both, politics has been messy/scandalous, reform has been slow. But both are harder to govern than chile. Uneven rule of law creates potential for violence. All three presidents failed to live up to voters" expectations.
