AFM 101 Lecture Notes - Lecture 5: Royal Meteorological Society, Polar Vortex, Meteorology
Document Summary
Independent meteorologist matthew hugo, bsc, frmets, rmet takes a look at what the latest data is suggesting. After an exceptionally unsettled winter last year, primarily due to the influences of el nino and the qbo (quasi-biennial oscillation) phase, the coming winter is likely to have different foundations". There is some uncertainty over the likely phase of enso (el nino-southern oscillation) for the winter period, but a repeat of last year"s strong" el nino is not expected. At the moment enso-neutral conditions are in evidence, if not just with a slight trend towards la nina. La nina is favored to develop during the rest of the northern hemisphere summer, with an approximate. 75% chance that this will be maintained through the autumn and winter. When coupled with an easterly phase of the qbo the coming winter may turn out significantly different to the last one.
