POLS 1160 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Security Dilemma, Brinkmanship, Wage War

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Why Are There Wars?
Why Is There So Much Peace in the World?
Most countries are at peace most of the time
American deaths from
o 9/11- 2,996
o Terrorism: a few dozen per year
o Iraq war: 4,493
o Murder, average: 16,121
o Car Accidents, average: 38,804
o Accidental falls, average: 30,208
Hae’t ee ay ars sie WWII
Why Have War?
War is costly
Blood and treasure
States would rather get what they want without going to war
What States Fight Over
Territory
National policies
Regime type
Ethnic or religious divisions
War as Outcome of a Failed Bargain
Alternative explanations for war
Anarchy
o Realism: 2 dynamics that lead to war
1. A preventative motive- nip power in the bud
2. Security dilemma (spiral) fear of attack
Misperception
o Leaders misperceive their situation
Overestimate own capabilities
Underestimate capabilities or resolve of adversaries
Incorrectly fear imminent attack and strike out
Domestic Politics
o Some powerful group w/in a country stands to gain from war
Bargaining
o Actors try to resolve disputes over allocation of a good
Crisis Bargaining
o At least one party has threatened the use of force if demands are unmet
o Security dilemma
Setting up militaries
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