POL-UA 9994 Lecture Notes - Lecture 4: Milo Yiannopoulos, Jonathan Capehart, Bathroom Bill
26 Jan 2017
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Day 4: identity politics in 2017 and beyond. Conclusion of coverage of public opinion - polling in the 2016 election a. National polls actually got it nearly right i. ii. State polls got it (very) wrong i. ii. iii. Especially in states that were key to trump"s victory. Utah, iowa, ohio, and more were far from the line of equality (between vote margin and margin in the polls in swing states) Trump outperformed final polls by about 5% in swing states c. Shifts to trump in the final week of campaigning. Missed by media and candidates polls which stopped about a week before the election. States like wi, mi, oh, and pa were not in the field in the final days of the campaign ii. iii. iv. No comprehensive analysis has decisively shown that social desirability bias had a role in the discrepancy. Most data will be released over the next year, which will help answer the question.
