POL-UA 9994 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: Adlai Stevenson Iii, Venn Diagram, Walter Mondale

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Day 6: economics and elections, what"s next for. Lecture: bivariate regression, and the relationship between economics and elections. Economic growth and presidential election outcomes a. b. Each year, the economic health of the nation is the most important predictor of which party"s candidate wins the presidential elections. We"ll use a scatterplot and a regression line. Y: % of the vote received by incumbent candidate/party. X: % increase in gdp, previous three quarters of election year. Uses percentage of the two-party vote; removes independent or third-party votes. To what extent does x cause y? i. ii. One way to explore this question is to construct a scatterplot ( Generally, there is a strong positive relationship between these two variables (an increase in x is associated with an increase in y) Amount of change in y associated with a one percent increase in x. What kind of line best fits the relationship between x and y? i. ii.

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