FIN 260 Lecture Notes - Lecture 64: Loss Aversion, Patient Protection And Affordable Care Act, Lyndon B. Johnson

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Behavioral Finance:
Review of Law of Small Numbers:
o If something is random, then an extraordinary event is most likely to be
followed by an ordinary one.
o Don’t put too much faith in small samples it may just be random.
But the lesson is also that you really need a lot of data to see whether
something is true.
o In finance, people incorrectly assume that small samples are
representative of populations & make huge mistakes as a result.
EX: The market goes up & people continue to think it will only go up,
or the market goes down & the people think the market will only go
down.
o If an investor is in a risky investment, small sample bias can really hurt
them b/c they need to hold the investment for a relatively long period.
o With this bias, they will pull their money out too early since they think
the recent past is the population.
If someone has this bias, they should avoid risky investments since
they can’t hold the investment too long in bad times
Which of course is exactly what they need to do.
Asymmetric Loss Aversion:
Let’s say you are offered two investment opportunities, A and B.
o Option A yields a sure profit of $240,000.
o Option B is a lottery ticket yielding $1 million w/ a 25% probability & $0
w/ 75% probability.
Which one would you choose?
Most people would pick A.
Let’s say Lets say you are offered two investment opportunities, C & D.
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