PS 0500 World Politics 9.24 10.3.docx

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Political Science
PS 0500
Daniela Donno

Lecture: World Politics 9/24/12 Diplomacy and Mediation Diplomacy  Direct, face-face interaction of officials from different states  Used in combination with other foreign policy tools: war, threats of sanctions, trade, etc.  Example: o Yalta conference after WWII  US and Britain- accommodating SU…allowing them to have sphere of influence in Eastern Europe…beginning of their domination of those countries (Poland, Czechoslovakia, etc.)  Rapprochement- Article by Charles Kupchan o Optimist…believes in diplomacy US and Great Britain US and Japan France and Germany  Criticism of appeasement: making adversary feel more comfortable (you may look weak, they may look emboldened)  Question when leaders are deciding to undertake diplomacy/negotiate: Should negotiations be public or private?  Current practice usually a combination o Private negotiations followed by public announcement of what was decided o Example: Oslo peace process between Israel and Palestine Landmark agreement…a lot of optimism…leads to a comprehensive settlement of their dispute…20 years later it was unsuccessful. Negotiations were EXTREMELY private…  Advantages: Public negotiations could cause more pressure on the actors.  Disadvantages: If they’re done in private and then concessions are released, the population could be angry and feel betrayed….public announcement is important so the leaders can tell their states what they agreed to in private. Negotiations and Bargaining Space  Each side has an ideal point and a range of acceptable outcomes  Agreements must fall within the space of mutually acceptable outcomes  But what point within the bargaining space is chosen and why? Negotiations (Styles)  Positional negotiations o Each side opens with position and makes adjustments as negotiations proceed  Principled negotiations o Parties begin by identifying common principles, interests and goals o Specific outcomes are decided later o Oslo Accords and the “Road Map” are examples  Goal= Palestinian and Israeli states living in peace  Lay out process to move toward the goal  Road map process stalled within months of its creation Diplomacy: How Effective?  It can be a way for trust to develop between hostile actors  Its effectiveness depends on: o Are all actors negotiating in good faith?  Are they all going to follow through/be honest? o How big is the possible zone of agreement between the actors?  How big the bargaining space is  Diplomacy can be also used to stall (realist critique) o Examples possible: Iran & North Korea nuclear programs Mediation  Third party mediators facilitate negotiations o Heads of state, influential individuals, IGO officials  Examples: Bill Clinton, George Clooney (Sudan succession), Jimmy Carter (Latin America, North Korea), UN Secretary General  Functions include: o Identifying common ground (overlapping range of acceptable outcomes that the 2 sides can’t come up with on their own) o Identifying red lines, lines that each side isn’t willing to cross o Passing information between the parties; trust and credibility for the mediator comes in to play  Is neutrality important? Yes. So both parties can reach a compromise…neutrality facilitates trust…they have to promote the common good  But…in certain situations, a biased mediator can be better. Logic: US mediating Israel/Palestine crisis (biased towards Israel) but if US takes a step to push Israelis to understand that Palestinians have red lines…? o Keeping negotiations on track  Mediation Styles o Hands off vs. Intrusive o Neutral vs. Biased Mediation: Example  2000: Clinton hosts talks at Camp David (Israel and Palestine) o private talks with a public announcement…but no agreement was reached o Israeli PM: Minister Ehud Barak o Palestinian President: Yasir Arafat  Clinton was criticized as being too involved in details of the negotiations… too pushy  Disagreement over who is to blame for failure of the talks Lecture: World Politics 9/26/12 Hard and Soft Power  Power is the ability to effect the outcomes you want, and if necessary to change the behavior of others to make this happen” (Nye)  Power is a relational concept o Attribute exercised within a relationship (holding power over someone)  Politics is the struggle to acquire and exercise power Power Command (Hard Power) ------------------------ Co-opt (Soft Power) Coerce-----------Induce----------------------------Attract  Command (Hard power)- the ability to get others to do (or not do) what you want them to do (or not do)  Co-optive (Soft power)- the ability to get others to want what you want Examples of hard/command power Coercive power- Sticks- threatening to punish someone based on behavior Inducive Power- Carrots- giving a reward to get what you want Hard Power /Command  Sources of Hard Power o Material capabilities  Examples: military force, wealth, population, territory, natural resources  Uses of Hard Power o Coercion or inducement (sticks and carrots)  Examples: military intervention, sanctions, conditionality in international loans Soft Power/ Co-optive  Sources of Soft Power o Anything that influences international perceptions  Examples: Values, Culture, Foreign Policy, Sports, Aid (with no strings attached), reputation for wealth/success  Uses of Soft Power o Enticement and attraction  Examples: persuading another country to adopt your position  UN: agreement from other countries for sanctions (Iran, Syria) if they have more soft power, they’re going to persuade diplomats from other countries to agree with their position  The Wielders of soft power are numerous o States, non-state actors, MNCs, universities, famous people, “Hollywood”, musicians, artitsts, etc. Distributions of Power  Global power relations as a three- dimensional chessboard D1= military capabilities (uni) D2=Economic capabilities D3= Soft Power This type of power is widely dispersed Rising Soft Power  Rise of Al Jazeera challenges U.S./Western media dominance o Played an important role in the Arab Spring  China attempting to remake its international image o Olympics o Invests in Africa without preconditions o Cultivating better relations with its neighbors o Wants to work on PR and make it seem less intense…biggest population, improving economy and military Soft Power: Pros and Cons PROs:  Nye (2002): “The paradox of American power is that it is too great to be challenged by any other state, yet not great enough to solve problems such as global terrorism and nuclear proliferation. America needs the help and respect of nations.” o Motivations of terrorists: dislike of American foreign policy  Cheaper than hard power  Non-state actors can wield soft power  May enhance the effectiveness of hard power  Hard power has its limits o Examples: Sanctions rarely work CONs:  Better to be feared than loved  Less effective at influencing dictatorships than democracies  Difficult to measure soft power and its effects  Difficult to use it for short-term goals U.S. Soft Power  2006 BBC poll (40,000 people) o Each person ranked other countries according to positive or negative influence on world a
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