PS0500 10.9 10.15.docx

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Political Science
PS 0500
Daniela Donno

Lecture: World Politics 10/9/12 The Fog of War Lesson #1: Empathize with your enemy  Cuban Missile Crisis Thompson went against Kennedy and said that Khrushchev wants to be able to say he prevented Kennedy from destroying Castro. o Understand the thoughts that lie behind their decisions and actions Lesson #2: Rationality will not save us Lesson #3: There’s something beyond one’s self. Lesson #4: Maximize Efficiency Lesson #5: Proportionality should be a guideline in war Lesson #6: Get the data Lesson #7: Belief and seeing are both often wrong Lesson #8: Be prepared to reexamine your reasoning If we can’t persuade nations with comparable values…you have to reexamine reasoning- War on Vietnam Lecture: World Politics 10/10/12 Realist Perspectives on War and Peace Military Power  Conventional weapons  Weapons of mass destruction  Manpower  Military intelligence  Intangibles o Quality of training and Resolve (how prepared soldiers are for combat) Global Military Spending U.S. Military spending increases during times of war Korean, Vietnam, 1980s under Reagan nearing end of Cold war, 1990s relative decline, 2000s increase for 9/11 and reached the same levels of spending as Cold War But, We’re still in a Post Cold War World, and threats are different than in Cold War The Security Dilemma (another application of Prisoner’s Dilemma) Effects of Increased Military Spending Essential concept for realist thinkers  Strategic setting where two actors are in anarchy (no central global government  Each state only desires security  In their quest for security, states build up their military power  But an increase in security for State A creates a decrease in security for State B o Relative gains o Misperceptions about intentions o States can’t trust each other’s intentions  State B must respond to State A’s actions  Creates a spiral, action-reaction cycle o They have to react to what their opponent is doing Nuclear Arms Race Classic example: US and USSR arms race The Cold War, 1945-1991  U.S. and USSR never engaged in outright direct conflict  But, they engaged in a massive arms race  Fighting went on in Proxy Wars rd o The armies were present, but in 3 countries o E.g. Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan o US funded the groups fighting the USSR  Other conflicts related to super-power competition o E.g. Israel- Arab, India-Pakistan, civil wars in Africa, civil wars in Central America  Victims of Cold War: Civilians in Vietnam where the 2 superpowers were fighting indirectly Key Terms  Deterrence: US’s overarching philosophy…their main goal through its build up of nuclear weapons in order to deter Soviet Union from attacking the US or their allies. A strategy aimed at preventing one’s opponent from taking a certain action.  First strike capacity: the ability to launch a nuclear strike against an opponent and limits its ability to retaliate to “acceptable levels” the opponent is so damaged that they can’t launch a strike in response.  Second strike capacity: the ability to absorb a first strike and inflict unacceptable damage on the opponent in retaliation.  Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) o If both sides have second-strike capacity, both sides can absorb 2 nd strike and launch a strike in response…. both sides can guarantee destruction. o Epitome of deterrence…both sides can deter each other o Mutual deterrence o Both sides spend countless money on nuclear weapons, but strategic situation, if both sides are rational, should never be used because using the weapons would cause your country destruction. Cold War Nuclear Phases 1945-50: US Monopoly Soviets explode first bomb in 1949 1951-57: US Dominance US possessed first strike capacity Soviets launch Sputnik satellite in 1957; now possess long-range missiles (ICBMs) for delivering nuclear weapons 1958-66: Us Preponderance 1967-end: Equivalence Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) Incentive to use the weapons went away Neither side could win a nuclear war Cold War Foreign Policy 1947: Containment Pres. Truman: “…it must be the policy of the US to support free people who are resisting attempted subjugation by armed minorities or by outside pressures.” US would have to engage in proxy wars to stop communism from spreading 1950s: Policy “massive retaliation” against any Soviet provocation Soviet policy during this time was one of “peaceful coexistence” 1969: Détente: reduction of tension and a normalization of diplomatic relations Both realized they had created a bad world 1972- Nixon: US normalized relations with China, a communist country. 1985: Gorbachev comes to power in the USSR Glasnost- increased openness, transparency Perestroika- restructuring of the Soviet economy Arms Control and Disarmament  Proliferation= an increase in the number of actors that possess a certain class of weapons  Arms Control Agreements place limits on the production, management, and use of weapons  Disarmament agreements reduce the number of weapons  Nuclear Proliferation  Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) (1968)  Nuclear states agreed not to give weapons to any countries that did not current
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