11:670:101 Lecture Notes - Lecture 8: Numerical Weather Prediction, World Meteorological Organization, Weather Forecasting
11 May 2020
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Watch: condition are right for event to occur. Warning: event is imminent or actually occuring in forecasted area. Deterministic- the high temo this afternoon wull be 85. Probabilistic- there is 30% chance of precipitation. Weather forecasts: issued to save lives to save property and crops and tell us what to. Knowing what weather will be in the future is vital to human activity. 10,000 land based stations and hundred of ships and buoys. Upper level infor: supplied by radiosonde aircraft and satelliters. Theophrastus pupil of aristole: 300 bc compiled weather indicators in his book of signs. Maps and charts were plotted by hand. Prognostic chart: final forecast chart representing the atmosphere at a specified future time. 24 hour forecast for the northern hemisphere requires millions of calculations. Based on running several forecast models or different versions (simulations) of a single model- each beginning with slightly different weather information to reflect the errors inherent in the measurements.
