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Lecture 5

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01:960:401 Lecture 5: 00104-Basic Stats for Research-2016-06-14
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Rutgers University

Statistics

01:960:401

Micheal Miniere

Summer

Description

We will do this in cla
Example: For men binge drinking is defined as having five or more drinks in a row, and for
women as having four or more drinks in a row (due to weight difference). 44% of college
students binge drink, 37% drink moderately, and 19% don't drink. Among binge drinkers, 17%
have been involved in alcohol-related auto accidents, and among maderate drinkers 9% have
been involved in such accidents
If one student is selected at random,
binge d
lved
b) what is the probability that the student was involved in an auto-related accident?
c) Given that the student was involved in an alcohol-related accident, what is the probability
that the student is a binge drinker?
This will be done in class
Example: Following is a Titanic Mortality Table (contingency table)
men Omen
boys girls total
318 29 27 survived
706
332
died 1360
104
35 18 1517
169 422 64 45 22213
total
If one person is selected at random
bility
d, gi
at th
b) what is the probability
of selecting a woman or child given that the selected person survived?
c) what is the probability of selecting a man and someone who died?
d) what is the probability selecting a man or someone who died?
two diff
bability
hey b
peopl
These will be done in class
ped
78%
k d
breath test, 36% are given a blood test, and 22% are given both tests
If one DWI person is selected at random
bility
d a b
blood
b) what is the probability that received a breath test or blood test, but not both?
c) what is the probability that they received neither test?
d) what is the probability that they received a blood test, but not a breath test?
This will be done in class
Uncertainty of medical tests (example 19 and 20
on page 150-151 but slightly changed)
Suppose that a certain virus is present in 1.4% of the population. Also suppose the conditional
probability that a medical test is positive, given that the person has the virus is 0.995. Also
suppose that 0.01 is the conditional probability that a person not having the virus tests positive
i.e., a false positive. If one person is selected at random
a) what is the probability that a person will test positive?
b) g
hat th
d p
the virus?
l be done in class.
diagram s
go across, you multipl
switch branthus, you ach
We will do this in cla Example: For men binge drinking is defined as having five or more drinks in a row, and for women as having four or more drinks in a row (due to weight difference). 44% of college students binge drink, 37% drink moderately, and 19% don't drink. Among binge drinkers, 17% have been involved in alcohol-related auto accidents, and among maderate drinkers 9% have been involved in such accidents If one student is selected at random, binge d lved b) what is the probability that the student was involved in an auto-related accident? c) Given that the student was involved in an alcohol-related accident, what is the probability that the student is a binge drinker? This will be done in class Example: Following is a Titanic Mortality Table (contingency table) men Omen boys girls total 318 29 27 survived 706 332 died 1360 104 35 18 1517 169 422 64 45 22213 total If one person is selected at random bility d, gi at th b) what is the probability of selecting a woman or child given that the selected person survived? c) what is the probability of selecting a man and someone who died? d) what is the probability selecting a man or someone who died? two diff bability hey b peopl These will be done in class ped 78% k d breath test, 36% are given a blood test, and 22% are given both tests If one DWI person is selected at random bility d a b blood b) what is the probability that received a breath test or blood test, but not both? c) what is the probability that they received neither test? d) what is the probability that they received a blood test, but not a breath test? This will be done in class Uncertainty of medical tests (example 19 and 20 on page 150-151 but slightly changed) Suppose that a certain virus is present in 1.4% of the population. Also suppose the conditional probability that a medical test is positive, given that the person has the virus is 0.995. Also suppose that 0.01 is the conditional probability that a person not having the virus tests positive i.e., a false positive. If one person is selected at random a) what is the probability that a person will test positive? b) g hat th d p the virus? l be done in class. diagram s go across, you multipl switch branthus, you achLecture lChapter y Cont.
X. Con
a. P CB and acc) (0.yy)(0.17) 3 0 O248
Da
t (0.19.0)
08
(bin
and acc
no
0.b92
0.108
acc.)
Letturt Chapttr cont.
ex of drivers stoppid, 78% given brtath Kst, 36% given blood fist,
and are given both
stark from insidu out (overlap)
0.08
brath blood
a P (BR or BL) 0.50 to,zz t
o P CBR or BL but not both) 0.50 4 10
CPC nuithur) 0.08
d Pl blood but not BR): O.ly
Lecture 5 Chapter 4 (ont
ex Titanic moriality
men women boys girls total
318
70lo
survivtd
332
2q
27
1300
died
35
total
bu
45
anu person selected at random
vp no conditional then dividu
318/yz
by total always
M and D)
300
Z223
d PCM or D) s P (M) t POD)- PCM and D
ex
c) (ABC or ABC or ABC) 0.13 Glo 0.20 05I
a P (A) 0.2
b P (BC) 0.17 B and not C
d P(CB) 0.28 C and nat
p)P(ABC) 0.2
ex virus print in To Populatian,positive and purson has
-virus is 0.9a5,

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