POL 102 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: The Literary Digest, Observational Error, Anti-Abortion Movements
27 Nov 2016
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Chapter 6- lecture notes part 1 (public opinion: definitions. To understand this polling needs to be understood. The main idea of random sampling is wanting to know what everyone in the population thinks, but we simply cannot sample everyone. Instead, a sample of individuals from that population is used to estimate what the population thinks and estimate public opinion (random samples are used to infer what the population thinks) Uncertainty is known as random error, this only makes sense if the sample is both truly random and representative of the population. Obama has a 50 percent approval rating in a poll with 1000 people with a marginal error +-3 with. 95% confidence, this just means that pollers are 95 percent certain that obamas approval rating is between 47 and 53 percent. Chicago tribune printing the night before that dewey defeated truman but the morning after revealed that truman defeated dewey. Heuristics" to guide them through the political world.
