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IR 1.27.docx

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Political Science
Kelly Greenhill

IR 1.27 Iran’s reasons for acquiring nuclear weapons 1. individual—personal beliefs to discourage western thoughts and gain power; public security 2. domestic—hierarchy of power; religious; trustworthiness 3. international—reputation, deter others’aggression towards them (arguably the only reason for nuclear weapons (as a deterrent)) • U.S. only people to ever use nuclear weapons • why would other countries be opposed to Iran’s ownership of nuclear weapons o blocks trade o anti-Western (democracy) o encourages other local countries to obtain nuclear weapons Theory, Methodology and the Role of History in the Study of International Relations: • The Rhyme of History, WWI: o multipolar system transformed to extremely competitive bipolar system o war between relatives o anticipation of war and the impulse to attack before thinking and reacting diplomatically o radicalization of politics, revisionist groups emerging everywhere • Theory o “Aset of statements or principles devised to explain a group of facts or phenomena, especially one that has been repeatedly tested or is widely accepted and can be used to make predictions” o Positive: theories that seek to explain what is the state of affairs, why it is that way, and what are the actual effects  example: The current leader of the Fed has resulted in the high unemployment rate o Normative: theories that seek to explain how the states of affairs should be  example:Anuclear weapons free world would be better off o from two kinds of reasoning  inductive: using a specific example to make a generalization • ex: I kick a ball in the air and it always comes back down, so it will come back down after I kick it again.  deductive: using a general rule or law to explain a specific occurrence • ex: Newton’s law states that if you kick the ball, it will come back down  both deductive and inductive are equally legitimate, so long as you do not reuse the data  to make inferences: to arrive at a conclusion by reasoning from evidence/data o good for explanation, prediction, and prescription • Contingent vs. Probabilistic Statements o if z, then x y o if not z, then x  nothing o identify conditions (z) that will affect the propensity of x to cause y • Scientific Method o “The principles and empirical processes of discovery and demonstration considered characteristic of or necessary for scientific investigation, generally involvi
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