BFN 110 Lecture Notes - Lecture 14: Tunxis Community College, Standard Deviation, Expected Return

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coralimpala133

6 Jan 2021

School

Tunxis Community College

Department

Business – Finance

Course

BFN 110

Professor

garside

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Document Summary

Calculate risk and return for a single asset and a portfolio. An investment is the purchase of an asset with the expectation of making positive future returns. The return should compensate the investor for. The risk is the uncertainty of the future returns. Measures return taking into account the amount invested. Capital gains yield = earning price starting price / starting price. This measures the change in the value of the investment only. Amp"s share price at the start of the year was 10 and at the end it was 12. Rt = (pt pt-1) / pt-1. Pv = cf/(1+r) + cf2/(1+r)2 + + cfn/(1+r)n. The average return on an investment is. R = (r1 + r2 + r3 + + rn) / n. Example 2 i = return for period i. Yearly share prices are 10, 16, 12, 18. R = (60+ -25 +50)/3 = 28. 33% The most widely used measures of risk are standard deviation and variance.

Related Questions

Roger McDonald, 55 years old and single, is a dental surgeon and owns a dental practice. Roger has accumulated a SGD2,000,000 investment portfolio with a large concentration in small-cap Singapore equities. Over the last 5 years the portfolio has averaged 15 percent annual total return on investment. Roger does not expect to retire before he is 70 years old. His current income is more than sufficient to meet his expenses. Upon retirement, he plans to sell his medical practice and use the proceeds to purchase an annuity to cover his retirement cash flow needs. He has no additional long term goals or needs.
In consultation with Roger, his investment advisor, Justin Teo has drawn up an investment policy statement with the following elements (Justinâs notes justifying each item are included):
Risk tolerance: Roger has above average risk tolerance.
Justinâs notes:
- Rogerâs present investment portfolio and his desire for larger returns indicate a high willingness to take risk.
- His financial situation (largely current asset base, has ample income to cover expenses, lack of need for liquidity or cashflow, and long time horizon) indicates a high ability to assume risk.
Return Objective: The return objective is an average total return of 10 per cent or more with a focus on long-term capital appreciation.
Justinâs notes:
- Rogerâs circumstances warrant an above-average return objective that emphasizes capital appreciation for the following reasons:
- Roger has a sizable assert base and ample income to cover his current spending; therefore, the focus should be on growing the portfolio.
- Rogerâs low liquidity needs and long time horizon support an emphasis on a long term capital appreciation approach.
- Roger does not rely on the portfolio to meet living expenses.
-The numerical objective of 10 per cent represents an estimate of a target Roger can aim for rather than a minimum return required to meet a specific financial goal.

Liquidity: Rogerâs liquidity needs are low.
Justinâs notes:
- Roger has no regular cash flow needs from the portfolio, because the income from his medical practice meets all current spending needs.
- No large, one-time cash needs are stated. However, it could be considered appropriate to keep a small cash reserve for emergencies.
Time Horizon: Rogerâs time horizon is long term and consists of 2 stages:
(1) The first stage consists of the time until his retirement, which he expects to be 15 years.
(2) The second consists of his lifetime following retirement, which could range
from 10 to 20 years. Justin has also summarised Rogerâs current portfolio in Exhibit 1 below:
Value Total Return Deviation
Short-term Bonds $200,000 10% 4.6% 1.6%
Domestic Large-Cap Equities $600,000 30% 12.4% 19.5%
Domestic Small-Cap $1,200,000 60% 16.0% 29.9%
Total Portfolio $2,000,000 100% 13.8% 23.1%
Exhibit 1: Rogerâs Current Investment Portfolio

Roger expects to receive an inheritance of SGD2,000,000 soon. Roger and Justin sit down to discuss its investment in one of the four index funds. Given Rogerâs already above average risk tolerance and level of portfolio risk, Roger and Justin have concluded that the risk tolerance description in the current IPS remains valid; they do not want to contemplate further increase in portfolio risk. On the other hand, they do not wish to reduce expected return. Justin is evaluating the four index funds shown in Exhibit 2 below for their ability to produce a portfolio that will meet the following two criteria relative to the current portfolio:
- Maintain or enhance expected return, and
- Maintain or reduce volatility.

Each Fund in Exhibit 2 is invested in an asset class that is not substantially represented in the current portfolio shown in Exhibit 1. Exhibit 2 presents statistics on those index
funds.
Expected Expected Correlation of
Index Annual Annual Standard Returns with Current
Fund Return Deviation Portfolioâs Return
Fund A 15% 25% +0.80
Fund B 11% 22% +0.60
Fund C 16% 25% +0.90
Fund D 14% 22% +0.65
Exhibit 2: Expected Risk, Return and Correlation of 4 Index Funds under Consideration

Question 1
(a) Recommend the most appropriate index fund to add to Rogerâs portfolio. Justify your recommendations by describing how your chosen fund best meets both of the stated criteria. (No calculations are required.)

(b) Twenty years later, Roger is meeting with you, his new financial advisor. You are evaluating if Rogerâs investment policy remains appropriate for his changed circumstances.
- Roger is now 75 years old and retired. His spending requirements are expected to increase with the rate of general inflation, which is expected to average 3.0 per cent annually.
- Roger estimates his current living expenses at SGD150,000 annually. An annuity, purchased with the proceeds from the sale of his medical practice, provides SGD20,000 of this amount. The annuity is adjusted for inflation annually using a national price index.
- Because of poor investment performance and a high level of spending, Rogerâs asset base has declined to SGD1,200,000 exclusive of the value of the annuity.
- Roger sold all of his small-cap investment last year and invested the proceeds in domestic bonds.
- Because his international equity investments have performed poorly, Roger has become markedly uncomfortable holding international equities.
-Roger plans to donate SGD60,000 to a charity in three months.

Discuss how each of the following components of Rogerâs investment policy statement should now reflect the changes in his (note that the observations should focus on but not limited to the direction and magnitude of change in each component rather than on a specific numeric change):
(i) Risk tolerance
(ii) Return requirement
(iii) Liquidity needs
(iv) Time horizon

(c) Rogerâs investment portfolio at 75 years old is summarised in Exhibit 3 below:
Current Expected Expected
Allocation Return Standard Deviation
Cash equivalents 2% 5% 3%
Fixed Income 75% 7% 8%
Domestic Equities 10% 10% 16%
International Equities 3% 12% 22%
Domestic Real Estate 10% 10% 17%
_______________________________________________________________
Exhibit 3: Rogerâs Investment Portfolio at Age 75 Years Old

Given Rogerâs changed circumstances, state whether the current allocation to each asset class should be lower, the same, or higher. Justify your response with one reason for each asset class. No calculations are required and responses should be based only on Rogerâs changed circumstances and the information in
Exhibit 3.
(i) Cash Equivalents
(ii) Fixed Income
(iii) Domestic Equities
(iv) International Equities
(v) Domestic Real Estate

(d) Explain one (1) way in which Roger might seek to reduce the tension between his current return requirement and his current risk tolerance.

orangewildebeest816

a. You own a two-bond portfolio. Each has a par value of $1,000. Bond A matures in five years, has a coupon rate of 8 percent, and has an annual yield to maturity of 9.20 percent. Bond B matures in fifteen years, has a coupon rate of 8 percent and has an annual yield to maturity of 9.20 percent. Both bonds pay interest semi-annually. What is the value of your portfolio? What happens to the

value of your portfolio if each yield to maturity rises by one percentage point?

b. Rather than own a five-year bond and a fifteen-year bond, suppose you sell both of them and invest in two ten-year bonds. Each has a coupon rate of 8 percent (semi-annual coupons) and has a yield to maturity of 9.20 percent. What is the value of your portfolio? What happens to the value of your portfolio if the yield to maturity on the bonds rises by one percentage point?

c. Based upon your answers to (a) and (b), evaluate the price changes between the two portfolios. Were the price changes the same? Why or why not?

Task 2:

Construct a spreadsheet to replicate the analysis of the table. Click here to view the table. That is, assume that $10,000 is invested in a single asset that returns 7 percent annually for twenty-five years and $2,000 is placed in five different investments, earning returns of 100 percent, 0 percent, 5 percent, 10 percent, and 12 percent, respectively, over the twenty-year time frame. For each of the questions below, begin with the original scenario presented in the table:

a. Experiment with the return on the fifth asset. How low can the return go and still have the diversified portfolio earn a higher return than the single-asset portfolio?

b. What happens to the value of the diversified portfolio if the first two investments are both a total loss?

c. Suppose the single-asset portfolio earns a return of 8 percent annually. How does the return of the single-asset portfolio compare to that of the five-asset portfolio? How does it compare if the single-asset portfolio earns a 6 percent annual return?

d. Assume that Asset 1 of the diversified portfolio remains a total loss (ï¿½100% return) and asset two earns no return. Make a table showing how sensitive the portfolio returns are to a 1-percentage-point change in the return of each of the other three assets. That is, how is the diversified portfolioï¿½s value affected if the return on asset three is 4 percent or 6 percent? If the return on asset four is 9 percent or 11 percent? If the return on asset five is 11 percent? 13 percent? How does the total portfolio value change if each of the three assetï¿½s returns are one percentage point lower than in the table? If they are one percentage point higher?

e. Using the sensitivity analysis of (c) and (d), explain how the two portfolios differ in their sensitivity to different returns on their assets. What are the implications of this for choosing between a single asset portfolio and a diversified portfolio?

Task 3:

Annual savings from Project X include a reduction of ten clerical employees with annual salaries of $15,000 each, $8,000 from reduced production delays, $12,000 from lost sales due to inventory stock-outs, and $3,000 in reduced utility costs. Project X costs $250,000 and will be depreciated over a five-year period using straight-line depreciation. Incremental expenses of the system include two new operators with annual salaries of $40,000 each and operating expenses of $12,000 per year. The firmsï¿½ tax rate is 34 percent.

a. Find Project Xï¿½s initial cash outlay.

b. Find the projectï¿½s operating cash flows over the five-year period.

Cash Flow:

Benefits:
Sale Increase: Reduced lost sales from stockouts
Cost reduction: Salary reduction delay
Reduced production delay
Reduction in utility cost

Change in eranings before depreciation:
change in sales + cost reductions
Depreciation expense

benefits from the project:
change in sales + cost reductions
-depreciation

Cost increases:
Annual salary
operating expense
Increase in costs

Earnings before taxes:(benefits less cost increases)
Less: taxes
Earnings after taxes

Annual cash flows=net+depreciation=

C.If the project's required return is 12%, should it be implemented?

Year Cash flow PV at 12%
0
1
2
3
4
5

Please help me with this

turquoisemouse665

Question 5

1. Which of the following does not have default risk?

	a.	Money market mutual funds.
	b.	Commercial paper.
	c.	Negotiable certificates of deposit.
	d.	U.S. Treasury bills.

2 points

Question 6

1. The spread is the:

	a.	Difference between the bid and ask prices.
	b.	Commission charged by the broker.
	c.	Difference between the purchase and sale prices.
	d.	Difference between the commissions charged by full-service and discount brokers.

3 points

Question 7

1. Securities regulations protect investors by:

	a.	Requiring disclosures of information by firms.
	b.	Stopping investors from buying overpriced stock.
	c.	Reducing competition among brokers.
	d.	Establishing commission schedules.

3 points

Question 8

1. If a stock is bought on margin:

	a.	The full amount of the cost of the investment is borrowed.
	b.	The commissions on the investment are increased.
	c.	The cost of the investment is reduced.
	d.	The interest on the borrowed funds is set by the SEC.

3 points

Question 9

1. Sarbanes-Oxley, the latest important securities law:

	a.	Reduces potential conflicts between securities analysts and investment bankers.
	b.	Legalizes the sale of securities by investment brokers.
	c.	Requires corporate boards of directors to own stock.
	d.	Mandates that security analysts file their recommendations with the SEC.

2 points

Question 10

1. Which of the following are true about the present value of a dollar?

1. It increases as the interest rate increases.

2. It decreases as the interest rate increases.

3. It increases as the time period increases.

4. It decreases as the time period increases.

	a.	1 and 3.
	b.	1 and 4.
	c.	2 and 3.
	d.	2 and 4.

3 points

Question 11

1. Time value concepts may not be used to determine:

	a.	The present value of an annuity.
	b.	The margin required on a stock purchase.
	c.	The future value of $100 deposited in a bank.
	d.	The present value of a lump sum.

2 points

Question 12

1. What is the marginal tax rate?

	a.	The tax rate paid on investment gains from items purchased on margin.
	b.	The tax rate paid on an additional dollar of taxable income.
	c.	The margin required on a stock purchase.
	d.	The present value of a lump sum.

2 points

Question 13

1. Examples of capital gains include sales of which of the following?

1. IRA accounts.

2. Stocks sold for a profit.

3. Real estate sold for a profit.

	a.	1 and 2.
	b.	1 and 3.
	c.	2 and 3.
	d.	All of these choices.

3 points

Question 14

1. With a Roth IRA, the individual:

	a.	May deduct annual contributions.
	b.	Earns tax-free income.
	c.	Defers taxes.
	d.	Avoids estate taxes.

2 points

Question 15

1. Sources of unsystematic risk include which of the following?

1. A firms financing decisions.

2. A firms operations.

3. Fluctuating market prices.

	a.	1 and 2.
	b.	1 and 3.
	c.	2 and 3.
	d.	All of these choices.

2 points

Question 16

1. For diversification to reduce risk:

	a.	The returns on the individual securities should be highly correlated.
	b.	The prices of the stocks should be stable.
	c.	The returns on the individual securities should be negatively correlated.
	d.	One firm should offer dividends and the other should offer capital gains.

2 points

Question 17

1. Which of the following are true about beta coefficients?

1. They are a measure of systematic risk.

2. They relate the return on an individual security to the return on the market.

3. They measure the variability of an assets return.

	a.	1 and 2.
	b.	1 and 3.
	c.	2 and 3.
	d.	All of these choices.

3 points

Question 18

1. Which of the following does an efficient portfolio do?

1. Maximizes risk for a given return.

2. Minimizes risk for a given return.

3. Maximizes return for a given level of risk.

4. Minimizes return for a given level of risk.

	a.	1 and 3.
	b.	1 and 4.
	c.	2 and 3.
	d.	2 and 4.

3 points

Question 19

1. The security market line does not:

	a.	Indicate the relationship between risk and return.
	b.	Relate the market return and beta to a stock's return.
	c.	Identify the optimal portfolio for the investor.
	d.	Use beta coefficients as a measure of risk.

3 points

Question 20

1. Mutual funds ____ realized capital gains and income (for example, dividends received):

	a.	Retain.
	b.	Reinvest.
	c.	Distribute.
	d.	Distribute or reinvest.

2 points

Question 21

1. An index fund limits its portfolio to:

	a.	High quality securities.
	b.	Stocks that respond to changes in the consumer price index.
	c.	Stocks included in an aggregate measure of stock prices.
	d.	Stocks of firms in a particular industry.

2 points

Question 22

1. Mutual funds with beta coefficients greater than 1.0:

	a.	Have outperformed the market.
	b.	Have underperformed the market.
	c.	Have more systematic risk than the market.
	d.	Have less systematic risk than the market.

3 points

Question 23

1. Which of the following will tend to cause a stock's price to fall?

1. The firms beta declines.

2. The firms beta increases.

3. The risk-free rate declines.

4. The risk-free rate increases.

	a.	1 and 3.
	b.	1 and 4.
	c.	2 and 3.
	d.	2 and 4.

2 points

Question 24

1. The use of P/E ratios to select stocks suggests that:

	a.	High P/E stocks should be purchased.
	b.	Low P/E ratio stocks are overvalued.
	c.	A stock should be purchased if it is selling near its historic low P/E.
	d.	A stock should be purchased if it is selling near its historic high P/E.

2 points

Question 25

1. What does the efficient market hypothesis require?

1. Financial markets to be competitive.

2. Prices to adjust rapidly.

3. Prices of undervalued securities to fall.

	a.	1 and 2.
	b.	1 and 3.
	c.	2 and 3.
	d.	All of these choices.

3 points

Question 26

1. Which of the following does the strong form of the efficient market hypothesis suggest?

1. Inside information will not lead to superior investment results.

2. Inside information will lead to superior investment results.

3. Studying financial statements will not lead to superior investment results.

4. Studying financial statements will lead to superior investment results.

	a.	1 and 3.
	b.	1 and 4.
	c.	2 and 3.
	d.	2 and 4.

3 points

Question 27

1. Which of the following is the least broad-based measure of stock prices?

	a.	NASDAQ market index.
	b.	Dow Jones industrial average.
	c.	S&P 500 stock index.
	d.	AMEX market value index.

3 points

Question 28

1. What is dollar-cost averaging?

	a.	Periodically buying a round lot of stock.
	b.	Periodically investing a specified dollar amount in a stock.
	c.	A means to increase the average cost basis.
	d.	A means to ensure a positive return.

2 points

Question 29

1. Stock dividends cause:

	a.	The price of a share of stock to rise.
	b.	The price of a share of stock to fall.
	c.	The value of the firm to rise.
	d.	The value of the firm to fall.

2 points

Question 30

1. Which of the following occurs when a stock has a two-for-one split?

	a.	The price of the stock doubles.
	b.	The firm's assets increase.
	c.	The firm's liabilities decrease.
	d.	The par value of the stock is reduced.

3 points

Question 31

1. Dividend reinvestment plans offer which of the following advantages?

1. Deferment of federal income taxes.

2. A convenient means to accumulate shares.

3. Dollar-cost averaging.

	a.	1 and 2.
	b.	1 and 3.
	c.	2 and 3.
	d.	2.

3 points

Question 32

1. When the Federal Reserve seeks to expand the money supply, it:

	a.	Sells securities.
	b.	Buy securities.
	c.	Runs a deficit.
	d.	Runs a surplus.

2 points

Question 33

1. The sum of cash, currency, and demand deposits is:

	a.	M1.
	b.	M2.
	c.	M3.
	d.	M4.

3 points

Question 34

1. If the Federal Reserve lowers the target federal funds rate:

	a.	The discount rate rises.
	b.	Liquidity in the banking system is increased.
	c.	Security prices fall.
	d.	Required reserves are also decreased.

3 points

Question 35

1. The anticipation of inflation suggests that the investor should:

	a.	Buy bonds.
	b.	Anticipate higher interest rates.
	c.	Avoid real estate investments.
	d.	Sell stocks of gold companies.

3 points

Question 36

1. The current ratio is unaffected by:

	a.	Using cash to pay a dividend.
	b.	The collection of an account receivable.
	c.	Selling inventory for a profit.
	d.	Selling bonds and using the funds to finance inventory.

2 points

Question 37

1. Which of the following are true as the debt ratio increases?

1. Fewer assets are debt financed.

2. More assets are debt financed.

3. The ratio of debt equity increases.

4. The ratio of debt equity decreases.

	a.	1 and 3.
	b.	1 and 4.
	c.	2 and 3.
	d.	2 and 4.

2 points

Question 38

1. The technical approach suggests that future stock prices are forecasted by:

	a.	Past stock rates.
	b.	Financial ratios.
	c.	Accounting statements.
	d.	Monetary policy.

2 points

Question 39

1. The Dogs of the Dow strategy:

	a.	Forecasts the direction of the Dow Jones averages.
	b.	Suggests buying the Dow stocks with the highest dividend yields.
	c.	Outperforms the S&P 500.
	d.	Suggests buying the lowest-priced Dow stocks.

3 points

Question 40

1. Behavioral finance combines aspects from which two fields in an attempt to identify human traits that affect investment decisions?

	a.	Accounting and finance.
	b.	Finance and psychology.
	c.	Physics and finance.
	d.	Finance and marketing.

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BFN 110 Lecture Notes - Lecture 14: Tunxis Community College, Standard Deviation, Expected Return

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