GEO 446LEC Lecture Notes - Lecture 12: Alpine Plant, Swiss Alps, Intended Nationally Determined Contributions
15 Mar 2019
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Document Summary
Distributional changes current and future distributions can be projected using either mechanistic or correlative niche models. Based on direct observations, indices of abundance, reporting rates used as proxies for abundance, or inferred from declines in extent of occupied or suitable habitat. Extinction probability population fluctuations with changing environmental parameters to estimate extinction probability within a given time interval. Typically developed from laboratory and field observations of demographic rates, physiological tolerances, competition and dispersal, diseases and predation, as well as from energy balance equations. Data hungry and still might get the model wrong . Use species" biological characteristics as predictors of extinction risk often with estimates of exposure. Select traits related to sensitivity (e. g. ecological specialization, inter-specific interactions) and adaptability (i. e. dispersal and phenotypic adaptability) Score each according to observations or expert judgment. Extinction risks from climate change from 131 studies. Predicted extinction risks from climate change accelerate with global temperature rise. Predicted extinction risks from climate change differ by region.
