CCJS 105 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Posterior Probability, Prior Probability, Homicide

• School: University of Maryland
• Department: Criminology and Criminal Justice
• Course: CCJS 105
• Professor: Kiminori Nakamura

Document Summary

Those who have engaged in crime (specific deterrence) and those who are thinking about committing crime (general deterrence) Specific deterrence is after the failure of general deterrence. Data shows prison backfires, may come worse rather than sentencing probation. Data also shows a longer sentence does not necessarily show more deterrence. Touching a hot stove: punishment is certain, immediate, and severe. Experienced criminals have lower and more accurate perceptions of apprehension risk. Criminals can give more accurate estimate of the likelihood they will get caught because they have tested the probability, they have committed crimes many times and have opportunities to revise their plans. Prior probability experience (punished or not punished) posterior probability (update) We tend to overestimate the probability we get caught. System lacks certainty, criminals know that, so it is hard to deter criminals. Specific deterrence is not relevant because it is too late, only general is relevant.