GVPT 200 Lecture Notes - Lecture 21: Iraqi Security Forces, Al-Qaeda, Nigerian Civil War
30 Apr 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
International Relations: Civil Wars, Failed States, and the Politics of Intervention (April
30th, 2018)
• Reminders
o Papers are due this week in section.
o You may participate in GVPT studies for extra credit.
• Classical vs. Modern Insurgency
o Classical
▪ Insurgents challenge a functioning state.
▪ Insurgents wish to take over and govern the state.
▪ Propaganda is disseminated locally.
▪ Strategies focus on rural ambushes.
o Modern
▪ Insurgency follows a state failure.
▪ Insurgents scavenge the failed state.
▪ Propaganda is disseminated globally.
▪ Strategies focus on urban attacks such as bombings.
• Changes in Counterinsurgency
o Counter-propaganda becomes more important for controlling the “conflict
ecosystem.”
o Counterinsurgents need to mobilize global, regional, and local support bases and
prevent their rivals from doing the same.
o Differences in patrolling exist.
▪ Counterinsurgents patrol in a militarized manner that frightens local
civilians to the extent that they do not provide helpful intelligence.
• Testing the “Surge”
o Iraq was extremely violent between 2004 and 2007.
o There was a major drop in civilian and American fatalities in 2007:
▪ Monthly U.S. fatalities fell from 126 (May) to 23 (December).
o Why?
• Three Hypotheses:
o Sectarian Cleansing
▪ Evidence:
• Much of the violence in 2005 – 2006 occurred in majority-Sunni
areas rather than mixed ones.
o The Anbar Awakening
▪ Evidence:
• Sunnis already tried to realign with coalition forces, breaking away
from Al-Qaeda in Iraq, at least four times before the Anbar
Awakening. So why did it work this time?
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