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Lecture 14

INST 354 Lecture Notes - Lecture 14: Statistical Hypothesis Testing, Lift Ticket, Sunk CostsExam

Information Studies
Course Code
INST 354

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INST354 Lecture 14: Trials
This form of incomplete thinking is similar to the thinking of the clinician (discussed in
Chapter 1) who was trying to assess the validity of the claim that child abusers never stop
on their own. The clinician’s thinking was dominated by his available experience. More
generally, a decision maker’s thoughts are dominated by his or her initial impression, a
phenomenon referred to as a primacy effect or confirmatory hypothesis
testing (Nickerson, 1998). Baruch Fischhoff (1996) reached a similar conclusion about
people’s thinking in more informal, everyday decisions such as teenagers’ decisions about
school, social, and family life (including some decisions about matters with serious
consequences such as drug use, contraception, marriage, self-defense against criminal
assaults, and career choices). Fischhoff observed a general tendency to focus on the few
most salient possibilities and consequences and to ignore others, resulting in incomplete
analysis (see also Galotti, 2002).
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