HDE 117 Lecture 16: HDE117 - L16

4 Pages
Unlock Document

University of California - Davis
Human Development
HDE 117
James Carey

Lecture 16 I. Population Trends in Aging A. Age Pyramids 1. Age Pyramids – a graphical illustration that shows the distribution of various age groups in a population a. Birth rate and death rate (age-specific) have an effect on over-all structure  High “dependency ratios” – the ratio of working people (15-65) to under-aged/non-working people 2. Population Graph from 1901-1996 a. Demographic history is etched in an age-structure b. Post-war Boom (Baby Boom): lots of babies were born c. Deficit of men, war casualties from WWII: more women than men; decline in births d. Deficit of men from WWI: much higher deaths in men; 4/5/6 : 1 ratio of women to men e. *Baby boom is shown as bigger amount of people B. Population Trends 1. On January 1, 2011, as the Baby Boomers (1946-1964) began to celebrate their 65 birthdays, 10,000 people began to turn 65 every day—this will continue for 20 years 2. Aging Trends in the US (“a tsunami that is upon us”) a. Rapid growth of aged b. Increase in chronic disease c. More nursing homes d. Increase medical care of elderly e. Increase of medical cost 3. US is at 14% but Florida is at 18% (glimpse of what the future will be); CA is at almost 12% for population ages 65+ 4. Life Expectancy (years) – a. Japan is the longest living country b. South Korean women by 2050 will be the longest living group in the world c. Russia is not so good in life expectancy 14% - 1 out 7 will be 65+ (US population currently) 20% - 1 out of 5 will be 65+ projected d. Even though we spend much more on healthcare compared to Cuba, we have about the same life expectancy Country Males Females Japan 79 86 Italy 80 85 US 76 81 Cuba 76 80 Russia 63 75 II. Historical Trends in Aging A. Historical Perspective on Life Expectancy 1. One of the greatest human achievements has been enormous increase in life expectancy 2. Life expectancy in pre-history may have been 25-30 years th 3. By beginning of 20 century risen to around 50 in developed countries 4. In distant past perhaps 25% of all babies died the first year 5. The rise in human life expectancy is significant because: a. Reflects increasing material comfort and health care advances b. Longevity revolution poses challenge in terms of health care and social support B. Changes in Expectation of Life 1. Two Important Sets of Questions: a. How long do people live, why is longevity increasing, and how long will we live in the future? b. Are we mostly gaining healthy years of life or are we “living longer but doing worst”? 2. Changes in Expectation of Life in US 1900-2000 a. Lowest line ex=20 : now there’s expectancy at 50 where you’d have 20 more years to go b. ex= 5 getting into hard ages; bumping up against major challenges with old age 3. Maximum Age at Death: Sweden, 1861-1999 a. Sweden has the best long term data i. Oldest age of death from 1860 records b. Increase in oldest age of death; no fixed upper limit for age (no maximal age) c. Maximum age is accelerated (goes up faster) d. Men have lower life expectancies than women 4. Octogenarian Death Rates a. 1950-1995: shows what is happening at the oldest ages b. Everyone has huge decreases in old age mortality -Very high mortality rate for centenarians -Can still see trends in this period -1950: 6/10 centenarians would die before the year passed -There’s a sudden decrease -Males have higher mortality than females C. Future life expectancy in 35 industrialized countries: projections with Bayesian model ensemble 1. Life expectancy for women in 2010 a. Japanese and South Korean women live a really long tthe i. US women are towards the bottom (about 9 from the bottom) b. South Korean women 90 year life expectancy i. Japan is 3 expected for women ii. US is very low (84-85 life expectancy; not making much progress) c. *Australian men live the longest (based on 2010 numbers) i. South Korean men in the middle ii. US men in the lower middle d. *Estimated that South Korean men and women will live the longest – with highest life expectancy 2. Life expectancy difference between women and men in 2030 vs 2010 a. *Gender gap: female-male difference on x-axis; female-advantage over males in 2030 on y-axis b. *US gender gap is about 4.5 years c. *In 2030, gender gap will be 3.8 years – the g
More Less

Related notes for HDE 117

Log In


Don't have an account?

Join OneClass

Access over 10 million pages of study
documents for 1.3 million courses.

Sign up

Join to view


By registering, I agree to the Terms and Privacy Policies
Already have an account?
Just a few more details

So we can recommend you notes for your school.

Reset Password

Please enter below the email address you registered with and we will send you a link to reset your password.

Add your courses

Get notes from the top students in your class.