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Lecture 27

# PHI 31 Lecture Notes - Lecture 27: Health Maintenance Organization, Combined Oral Contraceptive Pill

by OC1761826

Department

PhilosophyCourse Code

PHI 31Professor

Griesemer JamesLecture

27This

**preview**shows half of the first page. to view the full**3 pages of the document.**LECTURE 27: 12/3/18

EVALUATING DECISIONS

● Program

○ Part 1: Understanding the Problem

■ 1) Available Options (mutually exclusive, exhaustive)

■ 2) States of the World (mutually exclusive, exhaustive)

■ 3) Outcomes (draw the matrix: know the potential options and outcomes)

■ 4) Values (ranks of measure of outcome)

○ Part 2: Evaluating the Decision

■ 5) Strategies (pick a strategy)

■ 6) Evaluation

○ Ex:

■ 1) Options: Treatment A, Treatment B

■ 2) States: No complications, Complications

● Pr(treatment A complications) = 0.10

● Pr(treatment B complications) = 0.01

■ 3) Outcomes:

● A + No Complications = $1,000, A + Complications = $4,000

● B + No Complications = $1,400, B + Complications = $3,000

■ 4) Values:

●

■ 5) Strategy

● Decision with known risk → Expected Value Strategy

● EV (treatment A): ($1,000 x 0.9) + ($4,000 x 0.1) = $900 + $400 =

$1,300

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