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Lecture 26

PHI 31 Lecture 26: phi31 - lecture 26


Department
Philosophy
Course Code
PHI 31
Professor
Griesemer James
Lecture
26

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LECTURE 26: 11/30/18
DECISION MODELS
Models of Decision Making
3 types of decisions depend on 3 “grades” of scientific knowledge about the state
of the world
Best strategy for choosing an option depends on identifying the grade of
knowledge you have
3 Kinds of Decisions:
1) Complete Certainty: you have no doubt
If you know )have no doubt) how the world is, then there is only
one “strategy” for decision
Highest Value Strategy: choose the option with the highest-value
outcome compatible with the known state of the world
Ex: Imagine a jar of marbles with R, G, and B marbles. WE
are going to play a betting game where the outcome
depends on what color marble we draw
When we know the actual state of the world, we can
disregard other possible or conceivable states (G is drawn,
B is drawn)
The highest value says choose option: Bet on R because
Bet on R has the highest valued outcome (+10)
2) Known Risk: you have some evidence
Having some information about what the state of the world will be
Probabilities describe risks
Scientific evidence describes what we know about
probabilities
Expected Value: value we expect to achieve or “win” each time we
play the game, by choosing an option, or win on average from
playing the game many times
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