Lecture 4.doc

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Political Science
Course Code
POL 51
Ben Highton

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41514Pol 51 Lecture 4HW Answers Part11A p802If a country has a territorial dispute with another country hen it may decide to engage in a military buildup in anticipation of the possibility of military conflict with the other country At the same time the territorial dispute might lead to cause a military conflict As a result we will observecorrelation between buildup and conflict even though the buildup does not cause the conflict The real cause is the territorial dispute2A p 803 After a country undertakes a military buildup its leaders may be more confident about winning a military conflict As a consequence of increased confidence leaders may become more likely to rely on military force instead of other options when they have disputes with other countries From Developing Explanations to Testing Explanationsa primary purpose of political science is to explain significant political phenomenapolitical scientists seek to develop and test explanationsTesting Explanationscausal hypothesis XY steps to follow to assess the hypothesis1measure X and Y2determine if X and Y are correlated in the way predicted by the hypothesis3confirm that the cause occurred before the effect4if they are correlated identify and test alternative explanations for the correlation5if the alternatives can be confidently rejected then accept the hypothesis as true though we will never know for sure because of the fundamental problem of causal inferenceMeasuring Variables4 basic s
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