POL 51 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Future Wars, Dependent And Independent Variables, Confounding
16 May 2014
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Document Summary
Licklider (1995): the consequences of negotiated settlements of civil wars: licklider is a good example of an analysis that helps us detect general relationships. In particular i am concerned with the consequences of ending civil wars with negotiated settlements or military victories . Negotiated settlements are likely to create internal balance-of-power situations that make it difficult for the new government to function effectively. Military victory, on the other hand, will destroy the organizational structure of one side, making resumption of the civil war much more difficult. (p. 684-685) Theory/hypothesis 3 (this hypothesis makes the same prediction as wagner) An alternative argument is that any state that experiences civil war probably ha major internal problems but that those problems are unlikely to be resolved unless the postwar government can undertake structural change at the expense of vested interests. To remedy these problems a data set of 91 civil wars was constructed.
