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Political Science
POL 51
Ben Highton

42914Pol 51 Lecture 7Licklider 1995 The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements of Civil WarsLicklider is a good example of an analysis that helps us detect general relationshipsGetting Started The Research QuestionIn particular I am concerned with the consequences of ending civil wars with negotiated settlements or military victoriesHypothesis 1Many outsiders regardnegotiated settlement as a good way to end civil violence for at least two reasons 1 it will result in fewer causalities than the alternative of military victory for one side and 2 because it involves some sort of power sharing among the two parties it is likely to make future violence among the parties less likely p 682TheoryHypothesis 2 WagnerNegotiated settlements are likely to create internal balanceofpower situations that make it difficult for the new government to function effectively Militaryvictory on the other hand will destroy the organizational structure of one side making resumption of the civil war much more difficult p 684685TheoryHypothesis 3 This hypothesis makes the same prediction as WagnerAn alternative argument is that any state that experiences civil war probably ha major internal problems but that those problems are unlikely to be resolved unless the postwar government can undertake structural change at the expense of vested interests A negotiated settlement to a civil war is likely to result in veto groups that will not surrender power for social change whose impact on them is uncertain but a military victory will destroy the power of such groups making renewed con
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