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Lecture 11

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Political Science
POL 51
Ben Highton

52014Pol 51 Lecture 11How to estimate Vo for 1980Home State EffectVrVoVr595VoThe vote a candidate other than Reagan would have received in CA in 1980What are some possibilitiesFind a state like CA in terms of demographicspartisanshipetc and see how Reagan did there in 1980find out how the Republican presidential candidate in the previous election when Reagan was not the Republican candidate did in CAMore Data and More ThinkingRepublican vote in California in 1980 595Republican vote in California in 1976 509If Vo599 then the home state effect for Reagan in 1980 was 59550986 percentage pointsif the only important difference between presidential voting in Ca in 1980 compared to 1976 was that Reagan was on the ballot in 1980 then it is reasonable to estimate Vo with the 1976 CA presidential votewere there other important differences between presidential voting in CA in 1980 compared to 1976Back to IncYearsin 1976 the incumbent party was the Republicans and they had been inoffice for 8 years In 1980 the incumbent party was the Democrats and they had been in office for 4 yearsIf you go from the Republicans having been in power for 8 years 1976 to the Democrats having been in power for 4 years 1980 what do you expect to happen to the Repub
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