PSC 152 Lecture Notes - Lecture 14: Counterfactual Thinking, Counterfactual Conditional, Empathy Gap
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Thinking about the past & future
● Counterfactual thinking
○ Generation of alternatives to factual events - thoughts of “what might have been”
■ Ex: “if only I had studied more last night, I would have done better on the
exam”
○ Counterfactuals imply a causal connection
■ The thing you wish you had or hadn’t done must have caused the
problem
● Regret
○ When people generate counterfactuals (“if only I had studied more..”), they often
experience the emotion of regret
● When do we generate counterfactuals?
○ 4 factors that affect counterfactual thinking
■ 1. Closeness of the counterfactual
● Closeness of counterfactual
○ Mr. Crane and Mr. Tees were scheduled to leave the airport on different flights,
at the same time. They traveled from town in the same taxi, were caught in a
traffic jam, & arrived at the airport 30 min after the scheduled departure time of
their time of their flights
■ Mr. Crane is told his flight left on time
■ Mr. Tees is tld his flight was delayed, & just left 5 min ago
■ Who’s more upset?
○ Can easily imagine making flight when it left 5 min ago
○ Makes counterfactual more attention-grabbing - heightens emotional reaction
○ Feel more intense negativity when we “almost” attain a good outcome
○ Medvec et al. 1995
■ Bronze medalists happier than silver medalists
■ Easy for silver medalists to imagine winning gold
● When do we generate counterfactuals?
○ 4 factors that affect counterfactual thinking
■ 1. Closeness of the counterfactual
■ 2. Exception vs. routine
● Exception vs. routine
○ On the day of the accident, Mr. Jones left his office at the regular time. He
sometimes left early to take care of chores at his wife’s request, but this wasn’t
necessary on that day. Mr. Jones didn’t drive home by his regular route. The
weather was beautiful, & he told his co-workers he would drive along the
lakeshore to enjoy the view
■ Mr. Jones is killed in a car accident when a drunk teenager ran a red light
& crashed into his car
○ We feel worse when something bad happens b/c of an exceptional event (ex:
taking an alternate route home & getting in an accident)
○ Easy to imagine NOT going to the alternate route
● When do we generate counterfactuals?
○ 4 factors that affect counterfactual thinking
■ 1. Closeness of the counterfactual
■ 2. Exception vs. routine
■ 3. Actions vs. inactions
● Action vs. inaction
○ Paul owns shares in Company A. DUring the past year he considered switching
to stock in Company B, but ultimately decided against it. He now finds out that he
would have been better off by $2500 if he had switched to stock in Company B
■ George used to own shares in Company B. During the past year he
switched to stock in Company A. he now finds out that he would have
been better off by $2500 if he had kept his stock in company B
○ Who feels more regret?
■ > 95% of people say George
○ In short term, we regret actions more than inactions… but reverse is true in long
term
■ Regret actions when they are short
■ Regret inaction when they are long
○ Actions more salient than inactions … but over time, salience of actions fades
○ Actions seem more casual - easier to undo actions
■ Regrettable actions can be remedied (ex: apology)
■ Regrettable inactions remain a mystery
● When do we generate counterfactuals?
○ 4 factors that affect counterfactual thinking
■ 1. Closeness of the counterfactual
■ 2. Exception vs. routine
■ 3. Actions vs. inactions
■ 4. Perceived controllability
● Perceived controllability
○ Mr. Jones & the drunk teenager scenario
■ We rarely say, “if only the other driver wasn’t drunk …”
■ Not under Mr. Jones’ control
○ Victims of crimes
■ We mentally “undo” behavior of victims, but not behavior of criminals
● We focus more on victim
■ Blaming the victim - “you shouldn’t have been out alone so late at night”
■ We tend to feel worse when we THINK we could have done something
differently
● Predicting our future feelings
○ Important to do so accurately - affects actual behavior & can help us make better
decisions
○ But how good are we at predicting how we’ll feel about some future event?
■ Ex: how good would you feel if you won the lottery?
■ Ex: how bad would you feel if you and your partner broke up?