PSC 152 Lecture Notes - Lecture 13: Satisficing, Conjunction Fallacy, Unconscious Thought Theory
Document Summary
Don"t require extensive info or detailed analysis. Using irrelevant info to guide judgment & behaviors. Shortcuts for making judgments quickly & w/ little effort. Satisficing - opting for good enough solutions rather than optimal solutions (optimizing) Often helpful, but can lead to errors & biases. Using similarity as cue for making judgments. People failed to take into account the base rate of engineers. There is about 30% of engineers in the population. But c looks" more similar to how random is supposed to look - more. Tendency to make more extreme predictions for the joint occurrence of 2 events than for 1 event. Using similarity as cue for making judgment s. Neglect useful info & rely only on similarity. Can lead to errors & statistically incorrect judgments. Base rates - general frequency of an event. Conjunction rule - p(a&b) can"t be bigger than p(a) 4. regression to the mean - extreme outcomes tend to be followed by less extreme outcomes.
