PSC 152 Lecture Notes - Lecture 13: Satisficing, Conjunction Fallacy, Unconscious Thought Theory
7 views7 pages
Judgment & decision Making
● Judgment & Decision-Making
○ Classic attribution Theories’ failed predictions
■ Correspondence bias - underweight situational constraints
○ “Thin-Slice” Judgments
■ Don’t require extensive info or detailed analysis
○ Accessibility / priming effect
■ Using irrelevant info to guide judgment & behaviors
● Heuristics
○ Shortcuts for making judgments quickly & w/ little effort
■ Satisficing - opting for “good enough” solutions rather than optimal
solutions (optimizing)
○ Often helpful, but can lead to errors & biases
● Representativeness Heuristic
○ Using similarity as cue for making judgments
○ Neglect useful info & rely only on similarity
■ Can lead to errors & statistically incorrect judgments
○ For example, we neglect
■ 1. Base rates: general frequency of an event
● Ex: The Lawyer / Engineer Problem
○
■ People had high estimate (about 75%)
■ People failed to take into account the base rate of
engineers
● There is about 30% of engineers in the
population
■ 2. Independence of chance events
● Which is most likely?
○
○ Equally probable
■ But C ‘looks’ more similar to how random is supposed to look - more
representative of ‘random’
○ Also known as gambler's fallacy
● Representativeness Heuristic
○ Using similarity as cue for making judgment s
○ Neglect useful info & rely only on similarity
■ Can lead to errors & statistically incorrect judgments
○ For example, we neglect
■ 1. Base rates - general frequency of an event
■ 2 independence of chance events
■ 3. Conjunction rule - p(A&B) can’t be bigger than p(A)
● The “Linda” Problem
○
○
○ Conjunction fallacy
■ Tendency to make more extreme predictions for the joint occurrence of 2
events than for 1 event
● Representativeness Heuristic
○ Using similarity as cue for making judgment s
○ Neglect useful info & rely only on similarity
■ Can lead to errors & statistically incorrect judgments