PSC 152 Lecture Notes - Lecture 13: Satisficing, Conjunction Fallacy, Unconscious Thought Theory

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Published on 15 Jun 2020
School
Department
Course
Professor
Judgment & decision Making
Judgment & Decision-Making
Classic attribution Theories’ failed predictions
Correspondence bias - underweight situational constraints
“Thin-Slice” Judgments
Don’t require extensive info or detailed analysis
Accessibility / priming effect
Using irrelevant info to guide judgment & behaviors
Heuristics
Shortcuts for making judgments quickly & w/ little effort
Satisficing - opting for “good enough” solutions rather than optimal
solutions (optimizing)
Often helpful, but can lead to errors & biases
Representativeness Heuristic
Using similarity as cue for making judgments
Neglect useful info & rely only on similarity
Can lead to errors & statistically incorrect judgments
For example, we neglect
1. Base rates: general frequency of an event
Ex: The Lawyer / Engineer Problem
People had high estimate (about 75%)
People failed to take into account the base rate of
engineers
There is about 30% of engineers in the
population
2. Independence of chance events
Which is most likely?
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Equally probable
But C ‘looks’ more similar to how random is supposed to look - more
representative of ‘random’
Also known as gambler's fallacy
Representativeness Heuristic
Using similarity as cue for making judgment s
Neglect useful info & rely only on similarity
Can lead to errors & statistically incorrect judgments
For example, we neglect
1. Base rates - general frequency of an event
2 independence of chance events
3. Conjunction rule - p(A&B) can’t be bigger than p(A)
The “Linda” Problem
Conjunction fallacy
Tendency to make more extreme predictions for the joint occurrence of 2
events than for 1 event
Representativeness Heuristic
Using similarity as cue for making judgment s
Neglect useful info & rely only on similarity
Can lead to errors & statistically incorrect judgments
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